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A Neural Network Measurement of Relative Military Security: The Case of Greece and Cyprus

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Author Info

  • Andreou, Andreas S.
  • Zombanakis, George A.

Abstract

This paper aims at introducing a relative security measure, applicable to evaluating the impact of arms races on the military security of allies. This measure is based on demographic criteria, which play a dominant role in a number of arms races involving military alliances. The case of Greece and Cyprus, on one hand, and Turkey on the other, is the one to which our relative security measure is applied and tested. Artificial neural networks were trained to forecast the future behaviour of relative security. The high forecasting performance permitted the application of alternative scenarios for predicting the impact of the Greek - Turkish arms race on the relative security of the Greek - Cypriot alliance.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14539/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 14539.

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Date of creation: 2001
Date of revision: 2001
Publication status: Published in Defence and Peace Economics 4.12(2001): pp. 303-324
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14539

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Related research

Keywords: Arms Race; Neural Networks; Relative Military Security;

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References

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  1. Andreou, Andreas S. & Zombanakis, George A., 2000. "Financial Versus Human Resources in the Greek-Turkish Arms Race: A Forecasting Investigation Using Artificial Neural Networks," MPRA Paper 13892, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Sandler,Todd & Hartley,Keith, 1995. "The Economics of Defense," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521447287, October.
  3. Stavrinos, Vasilios G. & Zombanakis, George A., 1998. "The Vicious Cycle of the Foreign Military Debt," MPRA Paper 17758, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Christos Kollias & Stelios Makrydakis, 1997. "Is there a Greek-Turkish arms race?: Evidence from cointegration and causality tests," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 355-379.
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Cited by:
  1. Andreou, A. S. & Mateou, N. H. & Zombanakis, George A., 2003. "Crisis Management and Political Decision Making Using Genetically Evolved Fuzzy Cognitive Maps," MPRA Paper 51639, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Feb 2003.
  2. A. S. Andreou & K. E. Parsopoulos & M. N. Vrahatis & G. A. Zombanakis, 2004. "An alliance between Cyprus and Greece: assessing its partners' relative security contribution," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5), pages 481-495.
  3. Andreou, Andreas S. & Zombanakis, George A., 2003. "Intelligent information systems for defence problems," MPRA Paper 38637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Andreou, Andreas S. & Mateou, Nicos H. & Zombanakis, George A., 2005. "Soft computing for crisis management and political decision making: the use of genetically evolved fuzzy cognitive maps," MPRA Paper 51325, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Nov 2004.
  5. A. S. Andreou & K. E. Parsopoulos & M. N. Vrahatis & G. A. Zombanakis, 2002. "Optimal versus required defence expenditure: The case of the Greek-Turkish arms race," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 329-347.

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