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lmplicit Pension Debt in the Middle-East and North Africa Magnitude and Fiscal lmplications

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Author Info

  • Robalino, David
  • Tatyana, Bogomolova

Abstract

This paper breaks down the contingent liability of a mandatory pension system into two components: the implicit pension debt and the pay-as-you-go asset. It then estimates these two components for 12 pension schemes across six MENA countries and presents international comparisons. The results show that implicit pension debts are large (in the order of 50% to 100% of GDP), often higher than the explicit public debt. At the same time, the large majority of pension schemes have negative pay-as-you-go assets. Under these circumstances, it is misleading to consider the implicit pension debt a contingency, as the government will have to finance it with almost certainty. In the absence of a default the fiscal impacts are expected to be large. The paper recommends including in the assessment of public debt sustainability the implicit liabilities of the mandatory pension system and the pay-as-you-go asset.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 12019.

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Date of creation: Sep 2006
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:12019

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Keywords: Pensions; implicit pension debt; fiscal policy; contingent liabilities;

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References

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  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth & Savastano, Miguel, 2003. "Debt intolerance," MPRA Paper 13932, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Robalino, David & Whitehouse, Edward & Mataoanu, Anca & Musalem, Alberto & Sherwood, Elisabeth & Sluchynsky, Oleksiy, 2005. "Pensions in the Middle East and North Africa: time for change," MPRA Paper 10448, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Holzmann, Robert & Palacios, Robert & Zviniene, Asta, 2004. "Implicit pension debt: issues, measurement and scope in international perspective," Social Protection Discussion Papers 30153, The World Bank.
  4. Gilbert,Christopher L. & Vines,David (ed.), 2000. "The World Bank," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521790956.
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Cited by:
  1. Robalino, David A. & Bodor, András, 2009. "On the financial sustainability of earnings-related pension schemes with ‘pay-as-you-go’ financing and the role of government-indexed bonds," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(02), pages 153-187, April.

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