IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/116815.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing the contribution of South African Insurance Firms to Systemic Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Zulu, Thulani
  • Manguzvane, Mathias Mandla
  • Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo

Abstract

In light of the crucial contribution insurance firms make to global investment, this paper examines the extent of systemic risks facing emerging market insurance, with a particular focus on South Africa, one of the African continent's most prominent emerging economies. Contrary to past studies, the paper relies on delta conditional value at risk (∆CoVaR) based dynamic conditional correlation (DCC)-GARCH model to this end. Moreover, the paper assesses how selected developed economies contribute to the systemic of the South African insurance industry. The results of the empirical analysis show that Santam, Sanlam, and Momentum Holdings account for the largest systemic risks. At the same time, the least contributors are Discovery and Liberty. Meanwhile, Australia and Japan appear to contribute the most to systemic risk in the South African insurance industry. Moreover, the paper finds that periods of economic turmoil significantly increased developed markets' systemic risk contributions to the South African insurance industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Zulu, Thulani & Manguzvane, Mathias Mandla & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2023. "Assessing the contribution of South African Insurance Firms to Systemic Risk," MPRA Paper 116815, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:116815
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/116815/1/MPRA_paper_116815.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Acharya, Viral V., 2009. "A theory of systemic risk and design of prudential bank regulation," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 224-255, September.
    2. Ze-Jiong Zhou & Shao-Kang Zhang & Mei Zhang & Jia-Ming Zhu & Huihua Chen, 2021. "On Spillover Effect of Systemic Risk of Listed Securities Companies in China Based on Extended CoVaR Model," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2021, pages 1-13, March.
    3. De Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic risk: A survey," Working Paper Series 35, European Central Bank.
    4. Billio, Monica & Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2012. "Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 535-559.
    5. John Weirstrass Muteba Mwamba & Ehounou Serge Eloge Florentin Angaman, 2021. "Modeling System Risk in the South African Insurance Sector: A Dynamic Mixture Copula Approach," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-17, May.
    6. J. David Cummins & Mary A. Weiss, 2014. "Systemic Risk and The U.S. Insurance Sector," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 81(3), pages 489-528, September.
    7. Bernal, Oscar & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Guilmin, Grégory, 2014. "Assessing the contribution of banks, insurance and other financial services to systemic risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 270-287.
    8. Lumengo Bonga-Bonga & Mathias mandla Manguzvane, 2020. "Assessing the extent of contagion of sovereign credit risk among BRICS countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(2), pages 1017-1032.
    9. Smaga, Pawel, 2014. "The concept of systemic risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 61214, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Bierth, Christopher & Irresberger, Felix & Weiß, Gregor N.F., 2015. "Systemic risk of insurers around the globe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 232-245.
    11. Monica Billio & Mila Getmansky & Andrew W. Lo & Loriana Pelizzon, 2010. "Econometric Measures of Systemic Risk in the Finance and Insurance Sectors," NBER Working Papers 16223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Ja’nel Esterhuysen & Gary van Vuuren and Paul Styger, 2011. "The effect of stressed economic conditions on credit risk in Basel II," South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences, University of Pretoria, Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, vol. 14(2), pages 122-137, June.
    13. Abuzayed, Bana & Bouri, Elie & Al-Fayoumi, Nedal & Jalkh, Naji, 2021. "Systemic risk spillover across global and country stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 180-197.
    14. Tristan Jourde, 2022. "The Rising Interconnectedness of the Insurance Sector," Working papers 857, Banque de France.
    15. Gregory M. Foggitt & André Heymans & Gary Van Vuuren, 2019. "Measuring the systemic risk transfer from the United States to the South African financial sector," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(27), pages 2934-2944, June.
    16. Trabelsi, Nader & Naifar, Nader, 2017. "Are Islamic stock indexes exposed to systemic risk? Multivariate GARCH estimation of CoVaR," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 727-744.
    17. Martin Eling & David Antonius Pankoke, 2016. "Systemic Risk in the Insurance Sector: A Review and Directions for Future Research," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 249-284, September.
    18. Girardi, Giulio & Tolga Ergün, A., 2013. "Systemic risk measurement: Multivariate GARCH estimation of CoVaR," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3169-3180.
    19. Georg Mainik & Eric Schaanning, 2012. "On dependence consistency of CoVaR and some other systemic risk measures," Papers 1207.3464, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2012.
    20. Ja'Nel Esterhuysen & Gary Van Vuuren & Paul Styger, 2011. "The Effect Of Stressed Economic Conditions On Systemic Risk Within The South African Banking Sector," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(3), pages 270-289, September.
    21. Mathias Manguzvane & John Weirstrass Muteba Mwamba, 2019. "Modelling systemic risk in the South African banking sector using CoVaR," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5), pages 624-641, September.
    22. Souhir, Ben Amor & Heni, Boubaker & Lotfi, Belkacem, 2019. "Price risk and hedging strategies in Nord Pool electricity market evidence with sector indexes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 635-655.
    23. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    24. Teply, Petr & Kvapilikova, Ivana, 2017. "Measuring systemic risk of the US banking sector in time-frequency domain," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 461-472.
    25. Tristan Jourde, 2022. "The rising interconnectedness of the insurance sector," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 89(2), pages 397-425, June.
    26. Viral V. Acharya & João A. C. Santos & Tanju Yorulmazer, 2010. "Systemic risk and deposit insurance premiums," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 16(Aug), pages 89-99.
    27. J. Carlos Escanciano & Jose Olmo, 2011. "Robust Backtesting Tests for Value-at-risk Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 132-161, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ellis, Scott & Sharma, Satish & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2022. "Systemic risk measures and regulatory challenges," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    2. Rahman, Md Lutfur & Troster, Victor & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Yahya, Muhammad, 2022. "Systemic risk contribution of banks and non-bank financial institutions across frequencies: The Australian experience," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    3. Anna Denkowska & Stanisław Wanat, 2020. "A Tail Dependence-Based MST and Their Topological Indicators in Modeling Systemic Risk in the European Insurance Sector," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-22, April.
    4. Kubitza, Christian & Gründl, Helmut, 2016. "Systemic risk: Time-lags and persistence," ICIR Working Paper Series 20/16, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    5. Abuzayed, Bana & Al-Fayoumi, Nedal, 2021. "Risk spillover from crude oil prices to GCC stock market returns: New evidence during the COVID-19 outbreak," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    6. Eita, Joel Hinaunye & Ngobese, Sibusiso Blessing & Muteba Mwamba, John Weirstrass, 2020. "An empirical analysis of systemic and macroeconomic risk in South Africa: an application of the quantile regression," MPRA Paper 101493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ebrahimi Kahou, Mahdi & Lehar, Alfred, 2017. "Macroprudential policy: A review," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 92-105.
    8. Danielsson, Jon & James, Kevin R. & Valenzuela, Marcela & Zer, Ilknur, 2016. "Model risk of risk models," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 79-91.
    9. Edward M. H. Lin & Edward W. Sun & Min-Teh Yu, 2018. "Systemic risk, financial markets, and performance of financial institutions," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 579-603, March.
    10. Hossein Dastkhan, 2021. "Network‐based early warning system to predict financial crisis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 594-616, January.
    11. ZELDEA, Cristina Georgiana, 2019. "Systemic Risk: An Overview," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 23(3), pages 34-48, September.
    12. Dimitrios Bisias & Mark Flood & Andrew W. Lo & Stavros Valavanis, 2012. "A Survey of Systemic Risk Analytics," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 255-296, October.
    13. Garcia-Jorcano, Laura & Sanchis-Marco, Lidia, 2021. "Systemic-systematic risk in financial system: A dynamic ranking based on expectiles," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 330-365.
    14. Hai-Chuan Xu & Fredj Jawadi & Jie Zhou & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2023. "Quantifying interconnectedness and centrality ranking among financial institutions with TVP-VAR framework," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 93-110, July.
    15. Mauro Bernardi & Leopoldo Catania, 2015. "Switching-GAS Copula Models With Application to Systemic Risk," Papers 1504.03733, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2016.
    16. Kubitza, Christian & Regele, Fabian, 2017. "Persistence of insurance activities and financial stability," ICIR Working Paper Series 30/17, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    17. Sedunov, John, 2016. "What is the systemic risk exposure of financial institutions?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 71-87.
    18. Tian, Maoxi & Guo, Fei & Niu, Rong, 2022. "Risk spillover analysis of China’s financial sectors based on a new GARCH copula quantile regression model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    19. Jobst, Andreas A., 2013. "Multivariate dependence of implied volatilities from equity options as measure of systemic risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 112-129.
    20. Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2016. "CoVaR," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1705-1741, July.
      • Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2008. "CoVaR," Staff Reports 348, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
      • Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2011. "CoVaR," NBER Working Papers 17454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Delta conditional value at risk; dcc-gjr-garch; systemically important financial institutions.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:116815. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.