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The rise and stall of world electricity efficiency:1900-2017, results and implication for the renewables transitions

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  • Pinto, Ricardo
  • Henriques, Sofia
  • Brockway, Paul
  • Heun, Matthew
  • Sousa, Tânia

Abstract

In the coming renewables-based energy transition, global electricity consumption is expected to double by 2050, entailing widespread end-use electrification, with significant impacts on energy efficiency. We develop a long-run, worldwide societal exergy analysis focused on electricity to provide energetic insights for this transition. Our 1900-2017 electricity world database contains the energy carriers used in electricity production, final end-uses, and efficiencies. We find world primary-to-final exergy (i.e. conversion) efficiency increased rapidly from 1900 (6%) to 1980 (39%), slowing to 43% in 2017 as power station generation technology matured. Next, despite technological evolution, final-to-useful end-use efficiency was surprisingly constant (~48%), due to “efficiency dilution”, wherein individual end-use efficiency gains are offset by increasing uptake of less efficient end uses. Future electricity efficiency therefore depends on the shares of high efficiency (e.g. electrified transport and industrial heating) and low efficiency (e.g. cooling and low temperature heating) end uses. Our results reveal past efficiency increases (carbon intensity of electricity production reduced from 5.23 kgCO2/kWh in 1900 to 0.49 kgCO2/kWh in 2017) did little to decrease global electricity-based CO2 emissions, which rose 380-fold. The historical slow-pace of transition in generation mix and electric end-uses suggest strong, urgent incentives are needed to meet climate goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Pinto, Ricardo & Henriques, Sofia & Brockway, Paul & Heun, Matthew & Sousa, Tânia, 2022. "The rise and stall of world electricity efficiency:1900-2017, results and implication for the renewables transitions," MPRA Paper 112487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:112487
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laura Felício & Sofia T. Henriques & André Serrenho & Tiago Domingos & Tânia Sousa, 2019. "Insights from Past Trends in Exergy Efficiency and Carbon Intensity of Electricity: Portugal, 1900–2014," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-22, February.
    2. Astrid Kander & Paolo Malanima & Paul Warde, 2013. "Power to the People: Energy in Europe over the Last Five Centuries," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10138.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy efficiency; electricity; Carbon intensity; decarbonisation; energy history; energy end-uses;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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