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Are imports driven by exports or the other way around ?Thailand evidence

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  • Sharabati, Yamen
  • Masih, Mansur

Abstract

This paper investigates the long run and causal relationship between exports and imports. In addition to the main variables, we include two other macroeconomic variables (exchange rate and money supply) in order to use them as control variables. Thailand is taken as a case study. The standard time series techniques are used for the analysis. The results tend to indicate that there is a long-run theoretical relationship between the variables as evidenced in their being cointegrated. The findings based on variance decompositions analysis suggest that imports are driven by exchange rate and followed by exports. In other words, imports tend to lead exports in the context of Thailand. The findings have strong policy implications for developing countries like Thailand.

Suggested Citation

  • Sharabati, Yamen & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Are imports driven by exports or the other way around ?Thailand evidence," MPRA Paper 110689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:110689
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Fountas Stilianos & Wu Jyh-Lin, 1999. "Are the U.S. Current Account Deficits Really Sustainable?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 51-58.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hyun-Jae Rhee, 1997. "Are Imports and Exports of Korea Cointegrated?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 109-114.
    5. Husted, Steven, 1992. "The Emerging U.S. Current Account Deficit in the 1980s: A Cointegration Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 159-166, February.
    6. Jordan Shan & Gary Gang Tian, 1998. "Causality Between Exports and Economic Growth: The Empirical Evidence from Shanghai," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 195-202, June.
    7. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Lead-lag; Exports; Imports; VECM; VDC; Thailand;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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