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Causality Between Exports and Economic Growth: The Empirical Evidence from Shanghai

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  • Jordan Shan
  • Gary Gang Tian

Abstract

The export‐led growth hypothesis is tested using monthly time series data for Shanghai (one of the major exporting provinces in China) using the Granger no‐causality procedure developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) in a vector autoregresion (VAR) model. This paper builds on the existing literature in three distinct ways. This is the first study of the export‐led growth hypothesis which employs a regional dataset (Shanghai). Second, the paper follows Riezman et al. (1996) in controlling for the growth of imports to avoid a spurious causality result; and finally, the use of the methodology by Toda and Yamamoto is expected to improve the standard F‐statistics in the causality test process. The research finds one‐way Granger causality running from GDP to exports

Suggested Citation

  • Jordan Shan & Gary Gang Tian, 1998. "Causality Between Exports and Economic Growth: The Empirical Evidence from Shanghai," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 195-202, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:37:y:1998:i:2:p:195-202
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8454.00015
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    1. Halil Bajrami & Bashkim Bellaqa, 2020. "Foreign Investment and Export Management and Analysis -Kosovo Case," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 9(1), pages 11-21, January.
    2. Ayhan Orhan & Melek Emikönel & Murat Emikönel & Rui Alexandre Castanho, 2022. "Reflections of the “Export-Led Growth” or “Growth-Led Exports” Hypothesis on the Turkish Economy in the 1999–2021 Period," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-18, October.
    3. Ahdi N. Ajmi & Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Causality between exports and economic growth in South Africa: evidence from linear and nonlinear tests," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 49(2), pages 163-181, April-Jun.
    4. Sharabati, Yamen & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Are imports driven by exports or the other way around ?Thailand evidence," MPRA Paper 110689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Abo-Zaid Salem M, 2011. "The Trade-Growth Relationship in Israel Revisited: Evidence from Annual Data, 1960-2004," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 63-93, February.
    6. Jun Zhao & Qingzhe Jiang & Kangyin Dong, 2021. "Income inequality and natural gas consumption in China: Do heterogeneous and threshold effects exist?," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 630-650, December.
    7. Doyle Eleanor, 2001. "Export-Output Causality and the Role of Exports in Irish Growth: 1950-1997," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 31-54.
    8. Eleanor Doyle & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2006. "Relating Productivity and Trade 1980-2000: A Chicken and Egg Analysis," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 147, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Bibhuti Ranjan Mishra, 2020. "Role of External and Domestic Demand in Economic Growth: A Study of BRICS Countries," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(2), pages 547-566, April.
    10. Abrar ul haq, Muhammd, 2015. "Agricultural Export and Economic Growth: A Case Study of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 67249, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    11. Adeel Saleem & Maqbool H. Sial & Ahmed Raza Cheema, 2023. "Does an asymmetric nexus exist between exports and economic growth in Pakistan? Recent evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 297-326, February.
    12. Bilas Vlatka & Franc Sanja & Bošnjak Mile, 2015. "Examining the Export-led Growth Hypothesis: The case of Croatia," Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, Sciendo, vol. 61(3), pages 22-31, June.
    13. Raju GUNTUKULA, 2018. "Exports, imports and economic growth in India: Evidence from cointegration and causality analysis," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(615), S), pages 221-230, Summer.
    14. Eita, Joel Hinaunye & Mbazima, Daisy, 2008. "The Causal Relationship Between Government Revenue and Expenditure in Namibia," MPRA Paper 9154, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Fr餩ric Laurin, 2012. "Trade and regional growth in Spain: panel cointegration in a small sample," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(4), pages 435-447, February.
    16. Florentina Xhelili Krasniqi & Rahmije Mustafa Topxhiu, 0. "Export and Economic Growth in the West Balkan Countries," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 20(65), pages 88-104, September.
    17. Wolde-Rufael, Yemane, 2004. "Disaggregated industrial energy consumption and GDP: the case of Shanghai, 1952-1999," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 69-75, January.
    18. Byoungki Kim & Phouphet Kyophilavong & Kenji Nozaki & Teerawat Charoenrat, 2022. "Does the Export-led Growth Hypothesis Hold for Myanmar?," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 23(1), pages 48-60, February.
    19. Tsani, Stela Z., 2010. "Energy consumption and economic growth: A causality analysis for Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 582-590, May.

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