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La Covid-19 à l’épreuve des faits: quel est donc l’impact économique attendu au Cameroun? Une approche par la Modélisation VAR
[The factsheets of the Covid-19: what is the real economic impact in Cameroon? An assessment with the VAR Methodology]

Author

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  • Kuikeu, Oscar

Abstract

Among the aim expected of a statiscal Model is the one to be suitable for the choice on the set of Reproductible results. One of this kind of statistical Model is the Bayesian encompassing test. This kind of statistical Model resurges at the head with the need to achieve the assessment required by the Worldwide central State on the Covid-19’s economic impact. In fact, considering that the central State have adopted measures to emulate Supply as well as demand, with this interest to be sharp oriented in each case, because Supply emulation has be make until the improvement of the public health service and those of demand also be made such that the most vulnerable to the crisis can be protected, facts that raised therefore the ultimate goal to know the most approved between these two lines of emulation measures on the economic activity in this context concerned by the worldwide Outbreak, called Covid-19. Thus is not relevant to consider that we are in the case of two comparative Models? In other terms, what Model is the most suitable to achieve this assessment, the one that concerns Supply or the one that concerns demand? In other words, are the Supply emulation measures equivalent to that of demand? In all cases, these are the main questions that we try to answer, here. Globally speaking, considering the feasibility of statistical Models designed for discrimination, we thus achieve this goal considering the amounts of comments made by the civil society mainly on the economic analysis of Covid-19’s impact in Cameroon.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuikeu, Oscar, 2020. "La Covid-19 à l’épreuve des faits: quel est donc l’impact économique attendu au Cameroun? Une approche par la Modélisation VAR [The factsheets of the Covid-19: what is the real economic impact in C," MPRA Paper 103127, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:103127
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni & Ludwig Straub & Iván Werning, 2022. "Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1437-1474, May.
    2. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 10(Win), pages 2-16.
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    1. Kuikeu, Oscar, 2020. "Le Confinement à l’épreuve des faits: quel est donc l’intérêt économique attendu? [The factsheets of the lockdown: what is the real economic interest?]," MPRA Paper 103313, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Kuikeu, Oscar, 2020. "Épidémiologie de l’économie et confinement de l’Organisation COVID-19 [Epidemiologic aspect of the economy and Covid-19 lockdown as an Organisation]," MPRA Paper 103939, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Supply; demand; VAR Modelisation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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