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Armenia’s trade performance in 1995-2002 and the effect of closed borders: a cross-country perspective

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  • Freinkman, Lev
  • Polyakov, Evgeny
  • Revenco, Carolina

Abstract

The paper deals with two issues. First, it focuses on the analysis of Armenia’s trade performance based on the utilization of standard statistical models and develops comparative estimates of this performance relative to the peer countries. The comparison is undertaken in terms of trade openness, diversification, and composition. The main finding is that Armenia has been lagging in its export development relative to most CIS countries. The recent improvements in exports helped somewhat to reduce the gap. The second part of the paper provides for re-estimation of the “costs of blockade” effect. Armenia’s trade under-performance cannot be explained in terms of distorted government policies, because Armenia is recognized as a reform leader in the CIS.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 10065.

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Date of creation: Dec 2003
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Publication status: Published in Armenian Journal of Public Policy 1.2(2004): pp. 185-212
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10065

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Related research

Keywords: Armenia; trade; costs of blockade; gravity model; trade openness;

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References

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  1. Tarr David G., 1994. "The Terms-of-Trade Effects of Moving to World Prices on Countries of the Former Soviet Union," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-24, February.
  2. Djankov, Simeon & Freund, Caroline, 2002. "Trade Flows in the Former Soviet Union, 1987 to 1996," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 76-90, March.
  3. Avanesyan, Vahram & Freinkman, Lev, 2002. "Costing-out the Big Bang: Impact of external shocks on the Armenian economy at the outset of transition," MPRA Paper 10012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. K. Smarzynska, Beata, 2001. "Does Relative Location Matter for Bilateral Trade Flows? An Extension of the Gravity Model," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 16, pages 379-398.
  5. Polyakov, Evgeny, 2001. "Changing trade patterns after conflict resolution in the South Caucasus," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2593, The World Bank.
  6. World Bank, 2003. "Armenia : Public Expenditure Review," World Bank Other Operational Studies 13926, The World Bank.
  7. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1997. "Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 72.
  8. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Trade Policy and Economic Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," NBER Working Papers 6562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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