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Can EU high indebted countries manage to fulfill fiscal sustainability? Some evidence from the solvency constraint

Author

Listed:
  • Andreea Stoian

    (Department of Finance, Bucharest University of Economic Studies)

  • Rui Henrique Alves

    (Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Porto)

Abstract

The public finance constraints introduced by the Maastricht Treaty have been subject to numerous debates among economists. Balassone and Franco (2000) pointed out, for instance, that the fulfillment of these constraints allows for fiscal discipline and flexibility and excludes any bias from an unsustainable fiscal policy in the long run. But data shows that many of the advanced economies have exceeded the limits for budgetary deficits and public debt since 1993. Therefore, the question on whether fiscal policy is sustainable naturally arises. The aim of this paper is to investigate the achievement of the solvency constraint for the European Union high indebted countries using a simple public debt dynamic model. The required primary surplus is estimated under different scenarios, namely: (i) a baseline that aims at stabilizing public debt; (ii) a 60% of GDP scenario; and (iii) a minimum public debt scenario that differs among the countries under analysis. From results, we try to draw conclusions on what really matters for fiscal sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreea Stoian & Rui Henrique Alves, 2012. "Can EU high indebted countries manage to fulfill fiscal sustainability? Some evidence from the solvency constraint," FEP Working Papers 464, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    • Handle: RePEc:por:fepwps:464
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Andreea Stoian & Filip Iorgulescu, 2016. "The study of public debt: which are the distinctions between the emerging and advanced economies in the European Union?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(1), pages 167-196, February.
    2. Abel L. Costa Fernandes & Paulo R. Mota, 2012. "Triffin’s Dilemma Again and the Efficient Level of U.S. Government Debt," FEP Working Papers 469, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; primary balance; public debt; fiscal sustainability; Maastricht Treaty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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