IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/phs/dpaper/201707.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Violent conflicts in ARMM: Probing the factors related to local political, identity, and shadow-economy hostilities

Author

Listed:
  • Joseph J. Capuno

    (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman)

Abstract

The Philippines has a long history of internecine warfare or conflicts, especially in Mindanao where the secessionist conflicts alone since the 1970s have resulted in enormous human and economic costs. That violent social discords remain varied and widespread in Mindanao underscores the need for a better understanding of their causes to guide policy. Applying regression analysis on a panel dataset for 2011-2014, we examine the factors behind the municipal- and city-level incidence of violent conflicts related to political, identity and shadow-economy issues in the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao. Indicating that geography matters, we find evidence that conflicts spill over between neighboring localities, although the type of conflicts in one locality may not be same as that in its neighbors. Having many neighbors makes a locality more susceptible to political or identity conflicts, while those lying along the coast are more prone to shadow-economy conflicts. Indicating the importance of the quality of local governance, there are fewer cases of identity conflicts in localities where the mayor was re-elected, but more cases of shadow-economy and identity conflicts where the mayor and the vice-mayor or the district representative to Congress are relatives or belong to the same political clan. Also, we find the level of local government fiscal resources to be associated with lower incidence of identity conflicts, but also with higher incidence of disputes related to the underground economy. Moreover, the incidence of identity or shadow economy conflicts is higher in cities and in highly-urbanized provincial capitals than in municipalities. Finally, we find that political conflicts are indeed more frequent in 2013 (election year), and that both identity and shadow economy conflicts have become prevalent in 2014 than in 2011. These results identify some critical areas for interventions to reduce the occurrence or spread of violent discords in ARMM.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph J. Capuno, 2017. "Violent conflicts in ARMM: Probing the factors related to local political, identity, and shadow-economy hostilities," UP School of Economics Discussion Papers 201707, University of the Philippines School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:201707
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econ.upd.edu.ph/dp/index.php/dp/article/view/1508/989
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Verbrugge, Boris, 2015. "Decentralization, Institutional Ambiguity, and Mineral Resource Conflict in Mindanao, Philippines," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 449-460.
    2. Paul Collier & Marguerite Duponchel, 2010. "The Economic Legacy of Civil War: Firm Level Evidence from Sierra Leone," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2010-090, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    4. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and grievance in civil war," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 563-595, October.
    5. Rhea Molato, 2015. "The Economic Cost of Secessionist Conflict in the Philippines," Working Papers tax-mpg-rps-2015-05, Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance.
    6. Rettberg, Angelika & Ortiz-Riomalo, Juan Felipe, 2016. "Golden Opportunity, or a New Twist on the Resource–Conflict Relationship: Links Between the Drug Trade and Illegal Gold Mining in Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 82-96.
    7. Benjamin E. Diokno, 2012. "Fiscal decentralization after 20 years: What have we learned? Where do we go from here?," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 49(1), pages 9-26, June.
    8. Haslam, Paul Alexander & Ary Tanimoune, Nasser, 2016. "The Determinants of Social Conflict in the Latin American Mining Sector: New Evidence with Quantitative Data," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 401-419.
    9. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2000. "Greed and Grievance in Civil War," CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-18, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    10. Gilberto M. Llanto, 2012. "The assignment of functions and intergovernmental fiscal relations in the Philippines 20 years after decentralization," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 49(1), pages 37-80, June.
    11. Bardhan, Pranab, 1997. "Method in the madness? a political-economy analysis of the ethnic conflicts in less developed countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1381-1398, September.
    12. Quy-Toan Do & Lakshmi Iyer, 2010. "Geography, poverty and conflict in Nepal," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(6), pages 735-748, November.
    13. Federico Revelli, 2005. "On Spatial Public Finance Empirics," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 12(4), pages 475-492, August.
    14. Barron, Patrick & Kaiser, Kai & Pradhan, Menno, 2009. "Understanding Variations in Local Conflict: Evidence and Implications from Indonesia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 698-713, March.
    15. Collier,Paul & Duponche, Marguerite, 2010. "The Economic Legacy of Civil War: Firm Level Evidence from Sierra Leone," WIDER Working Paper Series 090, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    16. Nils Petter Gleditsch & Peter Wallensteen & Mikael Eriksson & Margareta Sollenberg & Hã…Vard Strand, 2002. "Armed Conflict 1946-2001: A New Dataset," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 39(5), pages 615-637, September.
    17. Paul Collier & V. L. Elliott & Håvard Hegre & Anke Hoeffler & Marta Reynal-Querol & Nicholas Sambanis, 2003. "Breaking the Conflict Trap : Civil War and Development Policy," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13938, December.
    18. Arsenio M. Balisacan & Hal Hill (ed.), 2007. "The Dynamics of Regional Development," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 4178.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mitsuhiko Kataoka & Al-Ikram Taupan Darangina, 2023. "Imperial Manila syndrome in poverty reduction: a province-level spatial distribution analysis," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-28, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
    2. Anderton,Charles H. & Carter,John R., 2009. "Principles of Conflict Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521875578, December.
    3. Gomes, Joseph Flavian, 2015. "The Political Economy of the Maoist Conflict in India: An Empirical Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 96-123.
    4. Joseph J. Capuno & Stella A. Quimbo & Aleli D. Kraft & Carlos Antonio R. Tan, Jr. & Vigile Marie B. Fabella, 2012. "Perks and public provisions : Effects of yardstick competition on local government fiscal behavior in the Philippines," UP School of Economics Discussion Papers 201208, University of the Philippines School of Economics.
    5. Jonathan Di John, 2007. "Oil abundance and violent political conflict: A critical assessment," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(6), pages 961-986.
    6. Benjamin A. Okonofua, 2016. "The Niger Delta Amnesty Program," SAGE Open, , vol. 6(2), pages 21582440166, June.
    7. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Witthuhn, Stefan, 2017. "Corruption and political stability: Does the youth bulge matter?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 47-70.
    8. Christopher Blattman, 2009. "Civil War: A Review of Fifty Years of Research," Working Papers id:2231, eSocialSciences.
    9. Ghani, Ejaz & Iyer, Lakshmi, 2010. "Conflict and Development—Lessons from South Asia," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 31, pages 1-8, September.
    10. James D. Fearon, 2005. "Primary Commodity Exports and Civil War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 49(4), pages 483-507, August.
    11. Ibrahim Ahmed Elbadawi & Raimundo Soto, 2015. "Resource rents, institutions, and violent civil conflicts," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 89-113, February.
    12. Tillman Hönig, 2019. "The Impact of Peace: Evidence from Nigeria," HiCN Working Papers 293, Households in Conflict Network.
    13. James C. Murdoch & Todd Sandler, 2002. "Economic Growth, Civil Wars, and Spatial Spillovers," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 46(1), pages 91-110, February.
    14. Ali, Hamid E. & Lin, Eric S., 2010. "Wars, foodcost and countervailing policies: A panel data approach," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 378-390, October.
    15. Olaf J de Groot & Carlos Bozzoli & Anousheh Alamir & Tilman Brück, 2022. "The global economic burden of violent conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(2), pages 259-276, March.
    16. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Murder by Numbers: Socio-Economic Determinants of Homicide and Civil War," Development and Comp Systems 0409048, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Montalvo, Jose G. & Reynal-Querol, Marta, 2007. "Ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4192, The World Bank.
    18. Mehler, Andreas, 2005. "Major Flaws in Conflict Prevention Policies towards Africa. The Conceptual Deficits of International Actors' Approaches and How to Overcome Them," GIGA Working Papers 4, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    19. Jeremy M. Weinstein, 2005. "Resources and the Information Problem in Rebel Recruitment," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 49(4), pages 598-624, August.
    20. Nicolás Corona Juárez & Henrik Urdal & Krishna Chaitanya Vadlamannati, 2022. "The significance of age structure, education, and youth unemployment for explaining subnational variation in violent youth crime in Mexico," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 39(1), pages 49-73, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political conflicts; identity conflicts; shadow economy; local governments; negative binomial model; Mindanao;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:201707. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: RT Campos (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/seupdph.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.