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Prospects and Risks for the Global Economy in 2019

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  • Tanweer Akram

Abstract

The pace of global economic growth has slowed down in 2019. The slope of the United States (US) Treasury securities yield curve has become flatter. This is raising concerns about the risks of a global economic recession. The US and People’s Republic of China have been the twin engines of global economic growth. Economic performance in both advanced countries and emerging markets is slowing. The US economy is expanding at a moderate pace. However, the recovery in the eurozone is stalling, while Japan faces protracted low inflation. The outcome of Brexit for the United Kingdom economy is uncertain. Monetary authorities in the US and eurozone have eased their target rates and other policies. In emerging markets, there is a clear divergence in performance. Risks to the global economy are tilted to the downside. There are several key long-term challenges for the world economy. This paper analyses current conditions in the global economy. It also examines the near term risks and long-term challenges to the global economy. It proposes some policy actions to address the downside risks and long-term challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • Tanweer Akram, 2019. "Prospects and Risks for the Global Economy in 2019," CPD Working Paper 130, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).
    • Handle: RePEc:pdb:opaper:130
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tanweer Akram & Huiqing Li, 2017. "An Inquiry Concerning Long-term US Interest Rates Using Monthly Data," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_894, Levy Economics Institute.
    2. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2014. "Understanding the Low Yields of the Long-Term Japanese Sovereign Debt," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 331-340.
    3. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2018. "Can Greece Grow Faster?," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_gr_nov_18, Levy Economics Institute.
    4. Jan Kregel, 2014. "Why Raising Rates May Speed the Recovery," Economics Policy Note Archive 14-6, Levy Economics Institute.
    5. Tanweer Akram & Huiqing Li, 2016. "The Empirics of Long-Term US Interest Rates," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_863, Levy Economics Institute.
    6. Stephanie Aaronson & Tomaz Cajner & Bruce Fallick & Felix Galbis-Reig & Christopher Smith & William Wascher, 2014. "Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(2 (Fall)), pages 197-275.
    7. Tanweer Akram, 2019. "The Japanese Economy: Stagnation, Recovery, and Challenges," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(2), pages 403-410, April.
    8. Flavia Dantas & L. Randall Wray, 2017. "Full Employment: Are We There Yet?," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive ppb_142, Levy Economics Institute.
    9. Tanweer Akram, 2014. "The Economics of Japan’s Stagnation," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 49(3), pages 156-175, July.
    10. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2018. "Can Greece Grow Faster?," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_gr_11_18, Levy Economics Institute.
    11. Akram, Tanweer & Li, Huiqing, 2017. "What keeps long-term U.S. interest rates so low?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 380-390.
    12. Tanweer Akram, 2015. "The Malady of Low Global Interest Rates," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_852, Levy Economics Institute.
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    Keywords

    Global Economy; economic growth; global economic recession;
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