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El impacto de políticas diferenciadas de cuarentena sobre la mortalidad por COVID-19: el caso de Brasil y Perú

Author

Listed:
  • Angelo Cozzubo

    (University of Chicago)

  • Javier Herrera

    (Departamento de Economía de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú - IRD-DIAL)

  • Mireille Razafindrakoto
  • François Roubaud

    (IRD-DIAL)

Abstract

Según la Universidad Johns Hopkins, Brasil y el Perú se encuentran entre los cinco países con el mayor número de infectados en el mundo (octubre 2020) y donde la letalidad por COVID-19 ha sido de las más elevadas. Este estudio propone determinar el impacto del COVID-19 sobre la mortalidad, considerando las medidas de confinamiento, la pobreza y la movilidad residencial; ello contrastando Perú y Brasil como dos casos de políticas de emergencia contrarias. Para responder a la pregunta de investigación, el análisis emplea información de mortalidad de actualización diaria y desagregada a nivel municipal para ambos países. El análisis aplica un conjunto de medidas de relación y heterogeneidad espacial local y global entre los niveles de sobremortalidad subnacionales considerando datos armonizados. Complementariamente, se plantea un modelo de estudio de eventos de fallecimientos distritales para ambos países entre 2019-2020, y se miden impactos heterogéneos por edad, sexo, pobreza y movilidad residencial. El análisis espacial muestra que el patrón de muertes dista de ser aleatorio en el espacio; y que los hotspots de sobremortalidad comienzan en las “grandes ciudades” y se diseminan en el tiempo. Del mismo modo, el estudio de eventos muestra que el efecto no es lineal, sino que hay una evolución de corto y largo plazo de las muertes donde los grupos más afectados resultan ser los hombres y adultos mayores. Finalmente, considerando el caso de Lima, es posible verificar que la movilidad tiene un efecto significativo y positivo en la sobremortalidad, particularmente en distritos pobres, lo cual se condice con el final de la cuarentena. JEL Classification-JE: I14, I18, H12, I32

Suggested Citation

  • Angelo Cozzubo & Javier Herrera & Mireille Razafindrakoto & François Roubaud, 2021. "El impacto de políticas diferenciadas de cuarentena sobre la mortalidad por COVID-19: el caso de Brasil y Perú," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2021-501, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    • Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00501
    DOI: 10.18800/2079-8474.0501
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID19; mortality; mobility; poverty; Peru; Brazil;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

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