IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pas/papers/2021-08.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Pandemic-induced de-urbanisation in Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Warr
  • Arief Anshory Yusuf

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected Indonesia severely. It was initially an urban event, but the loss of urban jobs has induced a large urban to rural migration, which we call de-urbanisation. This phenomenon temporarily reversed the long-term process of rural to urban reallocation of labour. In early 2021 the approximate size of this de-urbanisation was known, but not its effects. This paper analyses the general equilibrium consequences of this overlooked feature of the pandemic. The analysis shows that taking deurbanisation into account, the negative economic impact of the pandemic is largest among rural, not urban households, especially the poorest.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Warr & Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2021. "Pandemic-induced de-urbanisation in Indonesia," Departmental Working Papers 2021-08, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pas:papers:2021-08
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://acde.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/acde_crawford_anu_edu_au/2021-03/acde_td_warr_yusuf_2021_08.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Warr, 2008. "World food prices and poverty incidence in a food exporting country: a multihousehold general equilibrium analysis for Thailand," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 525-537, November.
    2. Hertel,Thomas W. (ed.), 1999. "Global Trade Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521643740.
    3. Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2008. "INDONESIA-E3: An Indonesian Applied General Equilibrium Model for Analyzing the Economy, Equity, and the Environment," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200804, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Sep 2008.
    4. Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2021. "The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 1-30, Summer.
    5. Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2006. "Constructing Indonesian Social Accounting Matrix for Distributional Analysis in the CGE Modelling Framework," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200604, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Nov 2006.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter Warr & Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2014. "Fertilizer subsidies and food self-sufficiency in Indonesia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(5), pages 571-588, September.
    2. Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2014. "International Commodity Prices and Inequality in Indonesia," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 201409, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Jun 2014.
    3. Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2018. "The direct and indirect effect of cash transfers: the case of Indonesia," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 45(5), pages 793-807, May.
    4. Arief Anshory Yusuf & Ahmad Komarulzaman & Muhamad Purnagunawan & Budy P. Resosudarmo, 2013. "Growth, Poverty and Labor Market Rigidity in Indonesia: A General Equilibrium Investigation," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 201304, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Jan 2013.
    5. Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2014. "Poverty, food prices and supply shocks of agricultural products in Indonesia," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 201408, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Jun 2014.
    6. Peter Warr & Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2009. "International food prices and poverty in Indonesia," Departmental Working Papers 2009-19, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    7. Peter Warr & Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2014. "World food prices and poverty in Indonesia," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(1), pages 1-21, January.
    8. George, Ammu & Li, Changtai & Lim, Jing Zhi & Xie, Taojun, 2021. "From SARS to COVID-19: The evolving role of China-ASEAN production network," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    9. Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2021. "Macroeconomic effects of COVID‐19: A mid‐term review," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 439-458, October.
    10. Tolcha, Tassew Dufera, 2023. "The state of Africa's air transport market amid COVID-19, and forecasts for recovery," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    11. Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2008. "INDONESIA-E3: An Indonesian Applied General Equilibrium Model for Analyzing the Economy, Equity, and the Environment," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200804, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Sep 2008.
    12. Jason F.L. Koopman & Onno Kuik & Richard S.J. Tol & Roy Brouwer, 2015. "Water Scarcity From Climate Change And Adaptation Response In An International River Basin Context," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(01), pages 1-22.
    13. A. G. Aganbegyan & A. N. Klepach & B. N. Porfiryev & M. N. Uzyakov & A. A. Shirov, 2020. "Post-Pandemic Recovery: The Russian Economy and the Transition to Sustainable Social and Economic Development," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(6), pages 599-605, November.
    14. Eline Moens & Louis Lippens & Philippe Sterkens & Johannes Weytjens & Stijn Baert, 2022. "The COVID-19 crisis and telework: a research survey on experiences, expectations and hopes," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 23(4), pages 729-753, June.
    15. Piotr Sorokowski & Agata Groyecka & Marta Kowal & Agnieszka Sorokowska & Michał Białek & Izabela Lebuda & Małgorzata Dobrowolska & Przemysław Zdybek & Maciej Karwowski, 2020. "Can Information about Pandemics Increase Negative Attitudes toward Foreign Groups? A Case of COVID-19 Outbreak," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-10, June.
    16. Wittwer, Glyn & Anderson, Kym, 2021. "COVID-19 and Global Beverage Markets: Implications for Wine," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 117-130, May.
    17. Camelia GHEORGHE & Teodora ROȘU, 2023. "The Impact Of Covid-19 On The Aviation Sector In Europe. A Case Study Of Romania," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 18(2), pages 103-129, June.
    18. Rubén Muñoz Pavón & Antonio A. Arcos Alvarez & Marcos G. Alberti, 2020. "Possibilities of BIM-FM for the Management of COVID in Public Buildings," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-21, November.
    19. Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Boubaker, Sabri & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2021. "Financial contagion during COVID–19 crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    20. Claudia Salceanu & Mariana Floricica Calin, 2022. "The Pandemic Context and Quality of Life for Youth in Constanta County," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 27(1), pages 687-696, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    De-industrialisation; Indonesia; COVID-19; structural change; rural poverty; urban poverty; inequality.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pas:papers:2021-08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Prema-chandra Athukorala (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/asanuau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.