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COVID-19 and global beverage markets: Implications for wine

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  • Glyn Wittwer
  • Kym Anderson

Abstract

This paper provides an empirical case study of impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on global beverage markets, particularly the wine sector. Both international trade and domestic sales have been adversely affected by temporary shifts away from on-premise sales by social distancing measures and self-isolation that led to closure of restaurants, bars and clubs plus declines in international travel and tourism. Partly offsetting this has been a boost to off-premise and direct e-commerce sales. We first estimate those impacts in 2020 and their expected partial recovery in 2021 using a new model of global beverage markets. A further recent disruption to global wine trade has been the imposition by China in late 2020 of prohibitive tariffs on its imports of bottled wine from Australia. Its diversionary and trade-reducing effects are compared with those due to COVID-19.

Suggested Citation

  • Glyn Wittwer & Kym Anderson, 2021. "COVID-19 and global beverage markets: Implications for wine," Departmental Working Papers 2021-12, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pas:papers:2021-12
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    File URL: https://acde.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/acde_crawford_anu_edu_au/2021-04/acde_td_wittwera_and_anderson_2021_12.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kym Anderson & Giulia Meloni & Johan Swinnen, 2019. "Global Alcohol Markets: Evolving Consumption Patterns, Regulations, and Industrial Organizations," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Kym Anderson (ed.), The International Economics of Wine, chapter 26, pages 671-712, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Anderson, Kym, 2020. "Consumer Taxes on Alcohol: An International Comparison over Time," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 42-70, February.
    3. James A. Giesecke & Nhi H. Tran & Robert Waschik, 2021. "Should Australia be concerned by Beijing’s trade threats: modelling the economic costs of a restriction on imports of Australian coal," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(1), pages 1-22, January.
    4. Kym Anderson & Vicente Pinilla, 2017. "Annual Database of Global Wine Markets, 1835 to 2016: Methodology, Derived Indicators, and Sources," Wine Economics Research Centre Working Papers 2017-04, University of Adelaide, Wine Economics Research Centre.
    5. Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2021. "The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 1-30, Summer.
    6. Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2020. "Global macroeconomic scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic," CAMA Working Papers 2020-62, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Kym Anderson & Glyn Wittwer, 2018. "Cumulative Effects of Brexit and Other UK and EU27 Bilateral FTAs on the World's Wine Markets," Wine Economics Research Centre Working Papers 2018-01, University of Adelaide, Wine Economics Research Centre.
    8. Wittwer, Glyn & Anderson, Kym, 2020. "A Model of Global Beverage Markets," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 330-354, August.
    9. Wittwer, Glyn & Anderson, Kym, 2021. "COVID-19 and Global Beverage Markets: Implications for Wine," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 117-130, May.
    10. Maloney,William F. & Taskin,Temel, 2020. "Determinants of Social Distancing and Economic Activity during COVID-19 : A Global View," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9242, The World Bank.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Puga, German & Sharafeyeva, Alfinura & Anderson, Kym, 2022. "Explaining bilateral patterns of global wine trade, 1962–2019," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 338-344, November.
    2. Wittwer, Glyn & Anderson, Kym, 2021. "COVID-19 and Global Beverage Markets: Implications for Wine," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 117-130, May.
    3. František Synák, 2023. "Problems and Opportunities within the Wine Industry in Terms of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-20, March.
    4. Ra�l Comp�s & Samuel Faria & T�nia Gon�alves & Vicente Pinilla & Jo�o Rebelo & Katrin Sim�n-Elorz, 2021. "The shock of lockdown on the spending on wine in the Iberian market: the effects of procurement and consumption patterns," Documentos de Trabajo dt2021-04, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Zaragoza.
    5. Ticau Iulia Ruxandra, 2022. "Evolution of the wine market in Europe: trends and barriers in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 16(1), pages 918-932, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Beverage market modeling; pandemic responses by consumers; prohibitive tariffs; trade diversion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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