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Vulnerability, Shocks and Persistence of Poverty - Estimates for Semi-Arid Rural South India

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  • Katsushi Imai
  • Raghav Gaiha

Abstract

This paper focuses on vulnerability of rural households to poverty when a negative crop shock occurs. Of particular concern is the possibilty of some sections experiencing long spells of poverty as a consequence of such shocks. The analysis is based on the ICRISAT panel survey of households in a semi-arid region in south India during 1975-84. Using alternative specifications that take into account direct effects of crop shocks as well as their indirect effects through asset adjustment, an assessment of vulnerability of different groups of households (e.g. classified on the basis of caste affiliation) is carried out. Whether transfers of land and non-land assets would reduce significantly their vulnerability is also examined. A reorientation of anti-poverty strategy is necessary to avoid welfare losses from negative crop shocks that are frequent and occasionally large.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number 128.

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Date of creation: 01 Nov 2002
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Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:128

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Keywords: shocks; dynamics; vulnerability; transfers; poverty;

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References

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  1. Neil McCulloch & Bob Baulch, 2000. "Simulating the impact of policy upon chronic and transitory poverty in rural Pakistan," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 100-130.
  2. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  3. World Bank, 2001. "Risk Management in South Asia : A Poverty Focused Approach," World Bank Other Operational Studies 15449, The World Bank.
  4. Alderman, H. & Paxson, C.H., 1992. "Do the Poor Insure? A Synthesis of the Literature on Risk and Consumption in Developing Countries," Papers 164, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
  5. Morduch, Jonathan, 1998. "Poverty, economic growth, and average exit time," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 385-390, June.
  6. Neil McCulloch & Bob Baulch, 2000. "Simulating the Impact of Policy upon Chronic and Transitory Poverty in Rural Pakistan," Econometrics 0004003, EconWPA.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Md. Shafiul Azam & Katsushi S. Imai, 2012. "Measuring Households' Vulnerability to Idiosyncratic and Covariate Shocks – the case of Bangladesh," Discussion Paper Series DP2012-02, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
  2. Raghbendra Jha & Raghav Gaiha & Anurag Sharma, 2006. "Mean Consumption, Poverty and Inequality in Rural India in the Sixtieth Round of the National Sample Survey," ASARC Working Papers 2006-11, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
  3. Pasquale Scaramozzino, 2006. "Measuring Vulnerability to Food Insecurity," Working Papers 06-12, Agricultural and Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO - ESA).
  4. R. Radhakrishna & K. Hanumantha Rao & C. Ravi & B. Sambi Reddy, 2006. "Estimation and Determinants of Chronic Poverty in India : An Alternative Approach," Development Economics Working Papers 22345, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  5. Raghbendra Jha, 2006. "Vulnerability and Natural Disasters in Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu and the Kyrgyz Republic," Departmental Working Papers 2006-05, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  6. Takeshima, Hiroyuki & Yamauchi, Futoshi, 2010. "Market and climatic risks and farmers' investment in productive assets under the Second Fadama Development Project in Nigeria:," IFPRI discussion papers 1033, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  7. Raghbendra Jha, 2006. "Vulnerability of Consumption Growth in Rural India," ASARC Working Papers 2006-04, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
  8. Romer Lovendal, Christian & Knowles, Marco, 2006. "Tomorrow's Hunger: A Framework for Analysing Vulnerability to Food Security," Working Paper Series RP2006/119, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  9. Manoj K. Pandey, 2009. "On Ageing, Health and Poverty in Rural India," ASARC Working Papers 2009-14, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
  10. Gaiha, Raghav & Imai, Katsushi, 2008. "Measuring Vulnerability and Poverty: Estimates for Rural India," Working Paper Series RP2008/40, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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