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How Best to Quantify Replication Success? A Simulation Study on the Comparison of Replication Success Metrics

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  • Muradchanian, Jasmine
  • Hoekstra, Rink
  • Kiers, Henk
  • van Ravenzwaaij, Don

    (University of Groningen)

Abstract

To overcome the frequently debated crisis of confidence, replicating studies is becoming increasingly more common. Multiple frequentist and Bayesian measures have been proposed to evaluate whether a replication is successful, but little is known about which method best captures replication success. We studied this in a simulation study, by comparing a number of quantitative measures of replication success with respect to their ability to draw the correct inference when the underlying truth is known, while taking publication bias into account. Our results show that Bayesian metrics seem to slightly outperform frequentist metrics across the board. Generally, meta-analytic approaches seem to slightly outperform metrics that evaluate single studies, except in the scenario of extreme publication bias, where this pattern reverses.

Suggested Citation

  • Muradchanian, Jasmine & Hoekstra, Rink & Kiers, Henk & van Ravenzwaaij, Don, 2020. "How Best to Quantify Replication Success? A Simulation Study on the Comparison of Replication Success Metrics," MetaArXiv wvdjf, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:metaar:wvdjf
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/wvdjf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Leonhard Held, 2020. "A new standard for the analysis and design of replication studies," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(2), pages 431-448, February.
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    6. Colin F. Camerer & Anna Dreber & Felix Holzmeister & Teck-Hua Ho & Jürgen Huber & Magnus Johannesson & Michael Kirchler & Gideon Nave & Brian A. Nosek & Thomas Pfeiffer & Adam Altmejd & Nick Buttrick , 2018. "Evaluating the replicability of social science experiments in Nature and Science between 2010 and 2015," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 2(9), pages 637-644, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Leon C Reteig & Lionel A Newman & K Richard Ridderinkhof & Heleen A Slagter, 2022. "Effects of tDCS on the attentional blink revisited: A statistical evaluation of a replication attempt," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(1), pages 1-23, January.

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