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• Patrick Guillaumont
• Sylviane Guillaumont Jeannene

We assess the prospects for growth of African economies up to the year 2010 by modelling structural and policy determinants of growth, under different scenarios for changes in the exogenous factors and economic policies which shape the projections. To this end we estimate a growth model for 39 African economies, during seven five-year periods from 1960 through 1995. The model emphasises two engines of growth: i) investment and ii) growth of exports. Using a composite indicator of “emerging economies” iiset up on the basis of the economic performance, quality of policies and political stability of African countries ppwe identify 14 African economies that stand better chances to achieve a lasting improvement in their policies and growth performance in the years ahead. These “emerging economies” can be mostly found in the Southern-Eastern and the Western parts of Africa. Our growth simulations involve two policy scenarios: a baseline scenario which extends policy trends observed ...

Nous évaluons le potentiel de croissance des économies d'Afrique à l'horizon de 2010, à partir d'une modélisation des facteurs structurels et politiques de la croissance en Afrique et sur la base de différents scénarios d'évolution des facteurs exogènes et des politiques économiques qui conditionnent les projections. L'analyse s'appuie sur l'estimation d'un modèle de croissance pour 39 économies d'Afrique et sept périodes quinquennales, couvrant les années 1960-95. Le modèle met l'accent sur le rôle de deux moteurs de croissance : i) l'investissement et ii) la progression des exportations. A partir d’un indicateur composite d’« économie émergente » — construit sur la base des résultats économiques, de la qualité des politiques et de la stabilité politique des pays africains — nous identifions les 14 économies de ce continent les plus susceptibles d’améliorer durablement leurs politiques et leurs performances économiques au cours des années à venir. Ces « économies émergentes » ...

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Paper provided by OECD Development Centre in its series OECD Development Centre Working Papers with number 145.

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Date of creation: Mar 1999
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Handle: RePEc:oec:devaaa:145-en

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