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The Transition to Smoking Cessation: Evidence from Multiple Failure Duration Analysis

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  • John A. Tauras

Abstract

While much is known about the impacts prices and tobacco control policies have on smoking participation and frequency of cigarette use, little is known about their impacts on smoking cessation. This paper addresses the dynamics of smoking cessation using longitudinal data on young adults from the Monitoring the Future Surveys. Site-specific prices and several measures of clean indoor air restrictions are added to the survey data. Both parametric and semi-parametric duration models are used to model multiple cessation attempts of young adults. The estimates indicate that increases in the price of cigarettes increase the probability of initial smoking cessation as well as subsequent cessation for those individuals who are unable to remain smoke- free after at least one prior cessation attempt. The average price elasticity of cessation is 0.343. In addition, stronger restrictions on smoking in private worksites and public places other than restaurants increase the probability of young adult smoking cessation.

Suggested Citation

  • John A. Tauras, 1999. "The Transition to Smoking Cessation: Evidence from Multiple Failure Duration Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7412
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    2. Martin Forster & Andrew M. Jones, "undated". "The role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking," Discussion Papers 00/51, Department of Economics, University of York.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hammar, Henrik & Carlsson, Fredrik, 2001. "Smokers' Decisions To Quit Smoking," Working Papers in Economics 59, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    2. Michael P. Kidd & Sandra Hopkins, 2004. "The Hazards of Starting and Quitting Smoking: Some Australian Evidence," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(249), pages 177-192, June.
    3. Hana Ross & Lisa M. Powell & John A. Tauras & Frank J. Chaloupka, 2005. "New Evidence on Youth Smoking Behavior based on Experimental Price Increases," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 23(2), pages 195-210, April.
    4. Yanyun He & Ce Shang & Frank J Chaloupka, 2018. "The association between cigarette affordability and consumption: An update," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(12), pages 1-14, December.
    5. Henrik Hammar & Fredrik Carlsson, 2005. "Smokers' expectations to quit smoking," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 257-267, March.
    6. Anne Bretteville-Jensen, 2006. "Drug Demand – Initiation, Continuation and Quitting," De Economist, Springer, vol. 154(4), pages 491-516, December.
    7. Ryoko Morozumi, 2006. "The impact of smoke-free workplace policies on smoking behaviour in Japan," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(9), pages 549-555.
    8. Feng Liu, 2010. "Cutting through the smoke: separating the effect of price on smoking initiation, relapse and cessation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(23), pages 2921-2939.
    9. Sergey Arzhenovsky, 2006. "Socioeconomic determinants of smoking in Russia (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 1, pages 81-100, September.
    10. Arzhenovskiy Sergey, 2005. "Socioeconomic determinants of smoking in contemporary Russia," EERC Working Paper Series 05-12e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    11. Mikael Bask & Maria Melkersson, 2003. "Should one use smokeless tobacco in smoking cessation programs?," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 4(4), pages 263-270, December.
    12. Masayo Sato & Yasushi Ohkusa, 2003. "The relationship between smoking initiation and time discount factor, risk aversion and information," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 287-289, April.
    13. John A. Tauras & Frank J. Chaloupka, 2001. "The Demand for Nicotine Replacement Therapies," NBER Working Papers 8332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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