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Do Investors Forecast Fat Firms? Evidence from the Gold Mining Industry

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Severin Borenstein
Joseph Farrell

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Abstract

Conventional economic theory assumes that firms always minimize costs given the output they produce. News articles and interviews with executives, however, indicate that firms from time to time engage in cost-cutting exercises. One popular belief is that firms cut costs when they are in economic distress, and grow fat when they are relatively wealthy. We explore this hypothesis by studying the response of the stock market values of gold mining companies to changes in gold prices. The value of a cost-minimizing, profit-maximizing firm is convex in the price of a competitively supplied input or output, but we find that the stock values of many gold mining companies are concave in the price of gold. We show that this is consistent with fat accumulation when a firm grows wealthy. We then address a number of potential alternative explanations and discuss where fat in these companies might reside.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7075.

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Date of creation: Apr 1999
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7075

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Florencio Lopez-de-Silane, 1993. "What do Firms do with Cash Windfalls?," NBER Working Papers 4258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jose E. Galdon Sanchez & James A. Schmitz, Jr., 1999. "Threats to industry survival and labor productivity: world iron-ore markets in the 1980's," Staff Report 263, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  2. David Levinson & Reinaldo Garcia & Kathy Carlson, 2001. "A Framework for Assessing Public Private Partnerships," Working Papers 200712, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  3. Juha Kilponen & Torsten Santavirta, 2004. "Competition and Innovation - Microeconometric Evidence using Finnish Data," Research Reports 113, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Leemore Dafny, 2008. "Are Health Insurance Markets Competitive?," NBER Working Papers 14572, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Alberto Behar & James Hodge, 2007. "The employment effects of mergers in a declining industry: the case of South African gold mining," Economics Series Working Papers 335, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Severin Borenstein & Joseph Farrell, 2000. "Is Cost-Cutting Evidence of X-Inefficiency?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 224-227, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Doh Shin Jeon, . "Relying on the agent in charge of production for project evaluation," Economics Working Papers 623, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 2006. [Downloadable!]
  8. Jose E. Galdon-Sanchez & James A. Schmitz, Jr., 2003. "Competitive pressure and labor productivity: world iron ore markets in the 1980s," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 9-23. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Mika Maliranta, 2002. "From R&D to Productivity Through Micro-Level Restructuring," Discussion Papers 795, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
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