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The Concentration of Job Destruction

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Author Info
Robert E. Hall

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Abstract

A time series is concentrated if the expectation of its current value is a negative function of a moving average of past values up to all but the most recent past. Job destruction has the property of concentration in a model of heterogeneous jobs because an adverse shock destroys jobs in plants close to the margin of shutdown. Until other plants drift close to that margin, there are fewer plants that are vulnerable to another adverse shock. Concentration is easy to spot in the autocorrelations of a time series, which will be negative except for the first few lags. A simple model generates data displaying concentration. Data on job destruction and employment change for U.S. manufacturing show unambiguous evidence of concentration. According to the simple model, job creation is more persistent and thus less concentrated than is destruction, a property reflected in the data as well.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7025.

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Date of creation: Mar 1999
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7025

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Hammour, Mohamad L., 1998. "Jobless growth: appropriability, factor substitution, and unemployment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 51-94, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Davis, Steven J & Haltiwanger, John C, 1992. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 819-63, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Robert E. Hall, 1999. "Aggregate Job Destruction and Inventory Liquidation," NBER Working Papers 6912, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Caballero, Ricardo J & Hammour, Mohamad L, 1996. "On the Timing and Efficiency of Creative Destruction," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(3), pages 805-52, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
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  1. Petri Böckerman & Mika Maliranta, 2002. "Regional Disparties in Gross Job and the Worker Flows in Finland," Discussion Papers 716, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
  2. Petri Böckerman & Mika Maliranta, 2001. "Regional disparities in gross job and worker flows in Finland," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Society for Economic Research, vol. 14(2), pages 84-103, Autumn. [Downloadable!]
  3. Hannu Piekkola & Petri Böckerman, 2002. "On Whom Falls the Burden of Restructuring? Evidence from Finland," Discussion Papers 714, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
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