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The Concentration of Job Destruction

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  • Robert E. Hall

Abstract

A time series is concentrated if the expectation of its current value is a negative function of a moving average of past values up to all but the most recent past. Job destruction has the property of concentration in a model of heterogeneous jobs because an adverse shock destroys jobs in plants close to the margin of shutdown. Until other plants drift close to that margin, there are fewer plants that are vulnerable to another adverse shock. Concentration is easy to spot in the autocorrelations of a time series, which will be negative except for the first few lags. A simple model generates data displaying concentration. Data on job destruction and employment change for U.S. manufacturing show unambiguous evidence of concentration. According to the simple model, job creation is more persistent and thus less concentrated than is destruction, a property reflected in the data as well.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7025.

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Date of creation: Mar 1999
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7025

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  1. Steven J. Davis & John C. Haltiwanger & Scott Schuh, 1998. "Job Creation and Destruction," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262540932, December.
  2. Robert E. Hall, 1999. "Aggregate Job Destruction and Inventory Liquidation," NBER Working Papers 6912, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 1997. "Jobless Growth: Appropriability, Factor Substitution, and Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 6221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 1994. "On the Timing and Efficiency of Creative Destruction," NBER Working Papers 4768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1990. "Gross Job Creation and Destruction: Microeconomic Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 123-186 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Davis, Steven J & Haltiwanger, John C, 1992. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 819-63, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Böckerman, Petri & Maliranta, Mika, 2002. "Regional Disparties in Gross Job and the Worker Flows in Finland," Discussion Papers 716, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
  2. Petri Böckerman & Mika Maliranta, 2001. "Regional disparities in gross job and worker flows in Finland," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 84-103, Autumn.
  3. Piekkola, Hannu & Böckerman, Petri, 2002. "On Whom Falls the Burden of Restructuring? Evidence from Finland," Discussion Papers 714, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.

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