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Unemployment Insurance Taxes and the Cyclical and Seasonal Properties of Unemployment

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Author Info
David Card
Phillip B. Levine

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Abstract

We combine Current Population Survey microdata for 1979-1987 with a newly assembled database of tax rates for the Unemployment Insurance system to measure the effects of imperfect experience-rating on temporary layoffs and other types of unemployment. We find a strong negative association between the degree of experience-rating and the rate of temporary layoff unemployment, with the largest effect in recessionary years and the smallest effect in expansionary years. Increases in the degree of experience-rating are also associated with dampened seasonal fluctuations in temporary layoffs, particularly in construction and durable manufacturing. The correlation between the degree of experience-rating and the unemployment rate of permanent job losers is smaller but also negative, whereas the correlation with the unemployment Me of job quitters and re-entrants is negligible. Attempts to control for the endogeneity of unemployment insurance taxes are consistent with a causal interpretation of our findings.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4030.

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Date of creation: Mar 1992
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4030

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Feldstein, Martin S, 1978. "The Effect of Unemployment Insurance on Temporary Layoff Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(5), pages 834-46, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Bertola, Giuseppe, 1990. "Job security, employment and wages," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 851-879, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Brown, Eleanor P, 1986. "Unemployment Insurance Taxes and Cyclical Layoff Incentives," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(1), pages 50-65, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Topel, Robert H, 1984. "Experience Rating of Unemployment Insurance and the Incidence of Unemployment," Journal of Law & Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 61-90, April.
  5. Burdett, Kenneth & Wright, Randall, 1989. "Unemployment Insurance and Short-Time Compensation: The Effects on Layoffs, Hours per Worker, and Wages," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1479-96, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Angrist, J.D., 1991. "Linear Instrumental Variables Estimation Of Average Treatment Effects In Nonlinear Models," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1542, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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  1. Carl Davidson & Stephen A. Woodbury, 1997. "The Optimal Dole with Risk Aversion, Job Destruction, and Worker Heterogeneity," Staff Working Papers 97-47, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Patricia M. Anderson & Bruce D. Meyer, 1994. "Unemployment Insurance Benefits and Takeup Rates," NBER Working Papers 4787, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Patricia M. Anderson & Bruce D. Meyer, 1995. "The Incidence of a Firm-Varying Payroll Tax: The Case of Unemployment Insurance," NBER Working Papers 5201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. L'Haridon, Olivier & Malherbet, Franck, 2002. "Unemployment Compensation Finance and Aggregate Employment Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 3614, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Roed,K. & Nordberg,M., 2001. "Temporary layoffs and the duration of unemployment," Memorandum 12/2001, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Melanie Arntz & Ralf Wilke, . "Can public employment subsidies render the German construction sector weather proof?," Discussion Papers 09/06, University of Nottingham, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. L'Haridon, Olivier & Malherbe, Franck, 2008. "Employment protection reform in search economies," Les Cahiers de Recherche 910, HEC Paris. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Jurajda, Stepán, 2001. "Estimating the Effect of Unemployment Insurance Compensation on the Labor Market Histories of Displaced Workers," IZA Discussion Papers 294, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Patricia M. Anderson & Bruce D. Meyer, 1998. "Using a Natural Experiment to Estimate the Effects of the Unemployment Insurance Payroll Tax on Wages, Employment, Claims, and Denials," NBER Working Papers 6808, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Patricia M. Anderson & Bruce D. Meyer, 1994. "The Effects of Unemployment Insurance Taxes and Benefits on Layoffs Using Firm and Individual Data," NBER Working Papers 4960, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Š. Jurajda, 2004. "Recalls and unemployment insurance taxes," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(10), pages 651-656, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Patricia M. Anderson & Bruce D. Meyer, 2005. "Unemployment Insurance Tax Burdens and Benefits: Funding Family Leave and Reforming the Payroll Tax," Working Papers 0601, Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Christopher J. O'Leary & Robert A. Straits, 2000. "Intergovernmental Relations and Employment Policy: The United States Experience," Staff Working Papers 00-60, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Bruce D. Meyer & Dan T. Rosenbaum, 1996. "Repeat Use of Unemployment Insurance," NBER Working Papers 5423, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Rafael Lalive & Josef Zweimüller, . "Benefit Entitlement and the Labor Market: Evidence from a Large-Scale Policy Change," IEW - Working Papers iewwp105, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Katherine Baicker & Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz, 1997. "A Distinctive System: Origins and Impact of U.S. Unemployment Compensation," NBER Working Papers 5889, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Hans H. Glismann & Klaus Schrader, 2001. "Alternative Systeme der Arbeitslosenversicherung — Das Beispiel der Vereinigten Staaten und des Vereinigten Königreichs," Kiel Working Papers 1032, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  18. Stephen A. Woodbury, 2002. "Income Replacement and Reemployment Programs in Michigan and Neighboring States," Staff Working Papers 02-86, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Alan B. Krueger & Bruce D. Meyer, 2002. "Labor Supply Effects of Social Insurance," NBER Working Papers 9014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Stepan Jurajda, 2001. "In ow into Unemployment: Employment Spells and Unemployment Insurance," Labor and Demography 0012008, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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