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Pandemics, Vaccines and an Earnings Damage Function

Author

Listed:
  • Harrison Hong
  • Jeffrey D. Kubik
  • Neng Wang
  • Xiao Xu
  • Jinqiang Yang

Abstract

We derive a parsimonious model of damage to corporate earnings from COVID-19. Using measures of expected damage from industry-level earnings forecast revisions, we estimate this model with nonlinear least squares and identifying restrictions related to forecast rationality. Forecasts in mid-May 2020 imply an earnings crash and lower earnings growth until a vaccine arrives in 1.48 years (95% CI [0.61, 5.88]). We extend our framework to account for time-varying vaccine arrival rates. Mid-August 2020 forecasts imply a vaccine arrival in 0.61 years (95% CI [0.35, 1.06]), which is due to positive vaccine news as opposed to fiscal or monetary policy news.

Suggested Citation

  • Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik & Neng Wang & Xiao Xu & Jinqiang Yang, 2020. "Pandemics, Vaccines and an Earnings Damage Function," NBER Working Papers 27829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27829
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    Cited by:

    1. Joost Bats & William Greif & Daniel Kapp, 2021. "The rise in the cross-sectoral dispersion of earnings expectations during COVID-19," Working Papers 724, DNB.
    2. Viral V. Acharya & Timothy Johnson & Suresh Sundaresan & Steven Zheng, 2020. "The Value of a Cure: An Asset Pricing Perspective," NBER Working Papers 28127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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