Tariffs, Capital Accumulation, and the Current Account in a Small Open Economy
AbstractThis paper analyze these effects of a tariff in an intertemporal optimizing model, emphasizing the role of capital accumulation. Three types of increases in the tariff rate are considered: (i) unanticipated permanent; (ii) unanticipated temporary; (iii) anticipated permanent. There are two main general conclusions to be drawn from the analysis. The first is that the introduction (or increase) of a tariff is contractionary, both in the short run and in the long run. In particular, employment is reduced both in the short run and in the long run, so that there is no significant intertemporal tradeoff, as obtained by previous authors. The fail in the long-run capital stock causes an immediate reduction in the rate of investment, which in turn leads to a current account surplus. While this response of the current account is in accordance with much (but not all) of the existing literature, the mechanism by which it is achieved, namely the decumulation of capital, has not been previously considered. Also, the fact that the declining capital stock is accompanied by an accumulation of foreign bonds means that the savings effect of the tariff is unclear, depending upon which influence dominates. This ambiguity of savings is, however, very different from those occurring in other studies. The second major conclusions stems from the fact that the steady state depended upon the initial stocks of the assets. As a consequence, a temporary tariff, by altering these initial conditions for some later date when the tariff is removed, leads to a permanent effect on the economy.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2781.
Date of creation: Jan 1990
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Other versions of this item:
- Sen, Partha & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1989. "Tariffs, Capital Accumulation, and the Current Account in a Small Open Economy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(4), pages 811-31, November.
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- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1982.
"Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?,"
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- Maurice Obstfeld, 1981. "Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?," NBER Working Papers 0686, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew B. Abel & Olivier J. Blanchard, 1983.
"An Intertemporal Model of Saving and Investment,"
NBER Working Papers
0885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Krugman, Paul, 1982. "The macroeconomics of protection with a floating exchange rate," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 141-182, January.
- Eichengreen, Barry J., 1981. "A dynamic model of tariffs, output and employment under flexible exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 341-359, August.
- Svensson, Lars E O & Razin, Assaf, 1983. "The Terms of Trade and the Current Account: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 97-125, February.
- Charles Engel & Kenneth Kletzer, 1986. "Tariffs, Saving and the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 1869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1987. "Current account dynamics in a finite horizon model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3-4), pages 299-313, November.
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