IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/26336.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Tax Policy and Lumpy Investment Behavior: Evidence from China's VAT Reform

Author

Listed:
  • Zhao Chen
  • Xian Jiang
  • Zhikuo Liu
  • Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato
  • Daniel Xu

Abstract

We incorporate the lumpy nature of firm-level investment into the study of how tax policy affects investment behavior. We show that tax policies can directly impact the lumpiness of investment. Extensive-margin responses to tax policy are key to understanding the effects of different tax reforms and to designing effective stimulus policies. We illustrate these results by studying China's 2009 VAT reform, which lowered the tax cost of investment and reduced partial irreversibility|the price gap between new and used capital. Using administrative tax data and a difference-in-differences design, we estimate a 36% investment increase. This effect is driven by investment spikes, which is consistent with the reduction of VAT-induced partial irreversibility. Using a dynamic investment model that fits the reduced-form effects of the reform, we show that policies that directly reduce the likelihood of firm inaction are more effective at stimulating investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhao Chen & Xian Jiang & Zhikuo Liu & Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato & Daniel Xu, 2019. "Tax Policy and Lumpy Investment Behavior: Evidence from China's VAT Reform," NBER Working Papers 26336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26336
    Note: EFG PE PR
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w26336.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrea Lanteri, 2018. "The Market for Used Capital: Endogenous Irreversibility and Reallocation over the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2383-2419, September.
    2. Christopher A. Hennessy & Toni M. Whited, 2007. "How Costly Is External Financing? Evidence from a Structural Estimation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1705-1745, August.
    3. Isaac Baley & Andrés Blanco, 2021. "Aggregate Dynamics in Lumpy Economies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(3), pages 1235-1264, May.
    4. Yongzheng Liu & Jie Mao, 2019. "How Do Tax Incentives Affect Investment and Productivity? Firm-Level Evidence from China," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 261-291, August.
    5. Rao, Nirupama, 2016. "Do tax credits stimulate R&D spending? The effect of the R&D tax credit in its first decade," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 1-12.
    6. Eric Zwick & James Mahon, 2017. "Tax Policy and Heterogeneous Investment Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 217-248, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Geng, Yong & Liu, Wei & Li, Kai & Chen, Hanshu, 2021. "Environmental regulation and corporate tax avoidance: A quasi-natural experiment based on the eleventh Five-Year Plan in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    2. Li, Hongbin & Meng, Lingsheng, 2022. "Skill biased tax policy change: Labor market effects of China’s VAT reform," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. E. Mark Curtis & Daniel G. Garrett & Eric C. Ohrn & Kevin A. Roberts & Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato, 2021. "Capital Investment and Labor Demand," NBER Working Papers 29485, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Min Fang, 2021. "Lumpy Investment, Fluctuations in Volatility and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 002001, University of Florida, Department of Economics.
    5. Isaac Baley & Andrés Blanco, 2021. "Aggregate Dynamics in Lumpy Economies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(3), pages 1235-1264, May.
    6. Wei Chen & Xilu Chen & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Zheng Song, 2019. "A Forensic Examination of China's National Accounts," NBER Working Papers 25754, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ke Ding & Helian Xu & Rongming Yang, 2021. "Taxation and Enterprise Innovation: Evidence from China’s Value-Added Tax Reform," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-20, May.
    8. Li, Kai & Qi, Shouzhou & Shi, Xunpeng, 2023. "Environmental policies and low-carbon industrial upgrading: Heterogenous effects among policies, sectors, and technologies in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    9. Cai, Guowei & Zhang, Xuejiao & Yang, Hao, 2022. "Fiscal stress and the formation of zombie firms: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    10. Guceri, Irem & Albinowski, Maciej, 2021. "Investment responses to tax policy under uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1147-1170.
    11. Li, Bing & Liu, Chang & Sun, Stephen Teng, 2021. "Do corporate income tax cuts decrease labor share? Regression discontinuity evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    12. Yu, Jinliang & Qi, Yu, 2022. "BT-to-VAT reform and firm productivity: Evidence from a quasi-experiment in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    13. Wei Cui & Mengying Wei & Weisi Xie & Jing Xing, 2021. "Corporate Tax Cuts for Small Firms: What Do Firms Do?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9389, CESifo.
    14. Fan, Ziying & Liu, Yu, 2020. "Tax Compliance and Investment Incentives: Firm Responses to Accelerated Depreciation in China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 1-17.
    15. Dongmin Kong & Mengxu Xiong, 2021. "Unintended consequences of tax incentives on export product quality: Evidence from a natural experiment in China," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 802-837, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yu, Jinliang & Qi, Yu, 2022. "BT-to-VAT reform and firm productivity: Evidence from a quasi-experiment in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    2. Tian, Binbin & Lin, Chao & Zhang, Wenwen & Feng, Chen, 2022. "Tax Incentives, On-the-job Training, and Human Capital Accumulation: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    3. Peng, Fei & Peng, Langchuan & Wang, Zheng, 2021. "How do VAT reforms in the service sectors impact TFP in the manufacturing sector: Firm-level evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    4. Yu Lu & Rui Liu & Yuhe Cao & Yuhan Li, 2023. "Tax Burden and Corporate Investment Efficiency," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-16, January.
    5. ORIHARA Masanori & SUZUKI Takafumi, 2021. "Windfalls? Costs and Benefits of Investment Tax Incentives due to Financial Constraints," Discussion papers 21087, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    6. Lee, Hanbaek, 2022. "Striking While the Iron Is Cold: Fragility after a Surge of Lumpy Investments," MPRA Paper 115872, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Tang, Meili & Wang, Yu, 2022. "Tax incentives and corporate social responsibility: The role of cash savings from accelerated depreciation policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    8. Yamazaki, Akio, 2022. "Environmental taxes and productivity: Lessons from Canadian manufacturing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    9. Dongmin Kong & Mengxu Xiong & Ni Qin, 2023. "Tax incentives and firm pollution," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(3), pages 784-813, June.
    10. Bilicka, Katarzyna, 2020. "Are financing constraints binding for investment? Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 618-640.
    11. Isaac Baley & Andrés Blanco, 2021. "Aggregate Dynamics in Lumpy Economies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(3), pages 1235-1264, May.
    12. David Sraer & David Thesmar, 2018. "A Sufficient Statistics Approach for Aggregating Firm-Level Experiments," NBER Working Papers 24208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Liu, Guanchun & Liu, Yuanyuan & Zhang, Chengsi, 2022. "Tax enforcement and corporate employment: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    14. Nadine Levratto & Aurelien Quignon, 2021. "Innovation Performance and the Signal Effect: Evidence from a European Program," Working Papers halshs-03466903, HAL.
    15. Lerche, Adrian, 2022. "Investment Tax Credits and the Response of Firms," IZA Discussion Papers 15668, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Zhao Chen & Yuxuan He & Zhikuo Liu & Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato & Daniel Yi Xu, 2021. "The Structure of Business Taxation in China," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 131-177.
    17. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/5e3g19l1fn9thpq7ldd8kqr3vu is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Görtz, Christoph & Sakellaris, Plutarchos & Tsoukalas, John D., 2023. "Firms’ financing dynamics around lumpy capacity adjustments," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    19. Eichfelder, Sebastian & Jacob, Martin & Schneider, Kerstin, 2020. "Do tax incentives reduce investment quality?," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 248, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    20. Chang, Kai & Wan, Qiong & Lou, Qichun & Chen, Yili & Wang, Weihong, 2020. "Green fiscal policy and firms’ investment efficiency: New insights into firm-level panel data from the renewable energy industry in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 589-597.
    21. Hongsheng Fang & Xufei Zhang & Lin Guo, 2023. "Productivity effects of corporate income tax: Evidence from China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(6), pages 1815-1842, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D25 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice: Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26336. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.