IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/20072.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Investment Noise and Trends

Author

Listed:
  • Robert F. Stambaugh

Abstract

During the past few decades, the fraction of the equity market owned directly by individuals declined significantly. The same period witnessed investment trends that include the growth of indexing as well as shifts by active managers toward lower fees and more index-like investing. I develop an equilibrium model linking these investment trends to the decline in individual ownership, interpreting the latter as a reduction in noise trading. Active management corrects most noise-trader induced mispricing, and the fraction left uncorrected shrinks as noise traders' stake in the market declines. Less mispricing then dictates a smaller footprint for active management.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert F. Stambaugh, 2014. "Investment Noise and Trends," NBER Working Papers 20072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20072
    Note: AP
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w20072.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yan, Xuemin (Sterling), 2008. "Liquidity, Investment Style, and the Relation between Fund Size and Fund Performance," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(3), pages 741-767, September.
    2. Michael C. Jensen, 1968. "The Performance Of Mutual Funds In The Period 1945–1964," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(2), pages 389-416, May.
    3. Russ Wermers, 2000. "Mutual Fund Performance: An Empirical Decomposition into Stock-Picking Talent, Style, Transactions Costs, and Expenses," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1655-1703, August.
    4. Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "The Noise Trader Approach to Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 19-33, Spring.
    5. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2011. "Recent trends in trading activity and market quality," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 243-263, August.
    6. Diane Del Guercio & Jonathan Reuter, 2014. "Mutual Fund Performance and the Incentive to Generate Alpha," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(4), pages 1673-1704, August.
    7. Ľuboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2012. "On the Size of the Active Management Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(4), pages 740-781.
    8. William N. Goetzmann & Alok Kumar, 2008. "Equity Portfolio Diversification," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 12(3), pages 433-463.
    9. K. J. Martijn Cremers & Antti Petajisto, 2009. "How Active Is Your Fund Manager? A New Measure That Predicts Performance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3329-3365, September.
    10. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2002. "Mutual fund performance and seemingly unrelated assets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 315-349, March.
    11. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    12. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Martijn Cremers & Antti Petajisto, 2006. "How Active is Your Fund Manager? A New Measure That Predicts Performance," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2370, Yale School of Management, revised 01 May 2009.
    14. Glode, Vincent, 2011. "Why mutual funds "underperform"," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 546-559, March.
    15. Lease, Ronald C & Lewellen, Wilbur G & Schlarbaum, Gary G, 1974. "The Individual Investor: Attributes and Attitudes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 413-433, May.
    16. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green, 2004. "Mutual Fund Flows and Performance in Rational Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(6), pages 1269-1295, December.
    17. Merton, Robert C, 1987. "A Simple Model of Capital Market Equilibrium with Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 483-510, July.
    18. Kelly, Morgan, 1995. "All their eggs in one basket: Portfolio diversification of US households," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 87-96, June.
    19. Lei Feng & Mark S. Seasholes, 2004. "Correlated Trading and Location," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(5), pages 2117-2144, October.
    20. Robert F. Stambaugh & Jianfeng Yu & Yu Yuan, 2015. "Arbitrage Asymmetry and the Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1903-1948, October.
    21. Miguel A. Ferreira & Aneel Keswani & António F. Miguel & Sofia B. Ramos, 2013. "The Determinants of Mutual Fund Performance: A Cross-Country Study," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(2), pages 483-525.
    22. Rydqvist, Kristian & Spizman, Joshua & Strebulaev, Ilya, 2014. "Government policy and ownership of equity securities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 70-85.
    23. Daniel Dorn & Gur Huberman & Paul Sengmueller, 2008. "Correlated Trading and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 885-920, April.
    24. Jonathan Reuter & Eric Zitzewitz, 2010. "How Much Does Size Erode Mutual Fund Performance? A Regression Discontinuity Approach," NBER Working Papers 16329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Lily Fang & Joel Peress, 2009. "Media Coverage and the Cross‐section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2023-2052, October.
    26. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    27. Barber, Brad M. & Odean, Terrance & Zhu, Ning, 2009. "Systematic noise," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 547-569, November.
    28. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2010. "Luck versus Skill in the Cross‐Section of Mutual Fund Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(5), pages 1915-1947, October.
    29. Kenneth R. French, 2008. "Presidential Address: The Cost of Active Investing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1537-1573, August.
    30. Petajisto, Antti, 2009. "Why Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(5), pages 1013-1044, October.
    31. Russ Wermers, 2000. "Mutual Fund Performance: An Empirical Decomposition into Stock‐Picking Talent, Style, Transactions Costs, and Expenses," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1655-1695, August.
    32. Robert Kosowski, 2011. "Do Mutual Funds Perform When It Matters Most to Investors? US Mutual Fund Performance and Risk in Recessions and Expansions," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(03), pages 607-664.
    33. Blume, Marshall E & Friend, Irwin, 1975. "The Asset Structure of Individual Portfolios and Some Implications for Utility Functions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(2), pages 585-603, May.
    34. Malkiel, Burton G, 1995. "Returns from Investing in Equity Mutual Funds 1971 to 1991," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 549-572, June.
    35. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2008. "All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 785-818, April.
    36. García, Diego & Vanden, Joel M., 2009. "Information acquisition and mutual funds," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(5), pages 1965-1995, September.
    37. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2008. "Liquidity and market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 249-268, February.
    38. Michael W. Brandt & Alon Brav & John R. Graham & Alok Kumar, 2010. "The Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle: Time Trend or Speculative Episodes?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 863-899, February.
    39. Treynor, Jack L & Black, Fischer, 1973. "How to Use Security Analysis to Improve Portfolio Selection," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(1), pages 66-86, January.
    40. Joshua M. Pollet & Mungo Wilson, 2008. "How Does Size Affect Mutual Fund Behavior?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2941-2969, December.
    41. Valery Polkovnichenko, 2005. "Household Portfolio Diversification: A Case for Rank-Dependent Preferences," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1467-1502.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ľuboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh & Lucian A. Taylor, 2017. "Do Funds Make More When They Trade More?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(4), pages 1483-1528, August.
    2. Pástor, Ľuboš & Stambaugh, Robert F. & Taylor, Lucian A., 2020. "Fund tradeoffs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(3), pages 614-634.
    3. Robert F. Stambaugh, 2019. "Skill and Profit in Active Management," NBER Working Papers 26027, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Feldman, David & Saxena, Konark & Xu, Jingrui, 2020. "Is the active fund management industry concentrated enough?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 23-43.
    5. Pástor, Luboš & Stambaugh, Robert F. & Taylor, Lucian, 2017. "Portfolio Liquidity and Diversification: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 12195, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Habib, Michel & Johnsen, D. Bruce, 2015. "The quality-assuring role of mutual fund advisory fees," CEPR Discussion Papers 10438, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Pástor, Ľuboš & Stambaugh, Robert F. & Taylor, Lucian A., 2015. "Scale and skill in active management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 23-45.
    8. Elton, Edwin J. & Gruber, Martin J., 2013. "Mutual Funds," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1011-1061, Elsevier.
    9. Ľuboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2012. "On the Size of the Active Management Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(4), pages 740-781.
    10. Guiso, Luigi & Sodini, Paolo, 2013. "Household Finance: An Emerging Field," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1397-1532, Elsevier.
    11. Habib, Michel A. & Johnsen, D. Bruce, 2016. "The quality-assuring role of mutual fund advisory fees," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-19.
    12. Pástor, Ľuboš & Stambaugh, Robert F. & Taylor, Lucian A., 2015. "Scale and skill in active management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 23-45.
    13. Brown, Stephen J. & Sotes-Paladino, Juan & Wang, Jiaguo(George) & Yao, Yaqiong, 2017. "Starting on the wrong foot: Seasonality in mutual fund performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 133-150.
    14. Dahlquist, Magnus & Odegaard, Bernt Arne, 2018. "A Review of Norges Bank's Active Management of the Government Pension Fund Global," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2018/1, University of Stavanger.
    15. Nicolae Gârleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2018. "Efficiently Inefficient Markets for Assets and Asset Management," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 1663-1712, August.
    16. Bianchi, Daniele & Babiak, Mykola, 2022. "On the performance of cryptocurrency funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    17. Brown, David C. & Davies, Shaun William, 2017. "Moral hazard in active asset management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 311-325.
    18. Carneiro, Livia Mendes & Eid Junior, William & Yoshinaga, Claudia Emiko, 2022. "The implications of passive investments for active fund management: International evidence," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    19. Alda, Mercedes & Andreu, Laura & Sarto, José Luis, 2017. "Learning about individual managers’ performance in UK pension funds: The importance of specialization," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 654-667.
    20. Sorhage, Christoph, 2015. "Outsourcing of mutual funds' non-core competencies," CFR Working Papers 14-04 [rev.2], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20072. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.