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Skill Premium and Trade Puzzles: a Solution Linking Production and Preferences

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  • Justin Caron
  • Thibault Fally
  • James R. Markusen

Abstract

International trade theory is a general-equilibrium discipline, yet most of the standard portfolio of research focuses on the production side of general equilibrium. In addition, we do not have a good understanding of the relationship between characteristics of goods in production and characteristics of preferences. This paper conducts an empirical investigation into the relationship between a good's factor intensity in production and its income elasticity of demand in consumption. In particular, we find a strong and significant positive relationship between skilled-labor intensity in production and income elasticity of demand for several types of preferences, with and without accounting for trade costs and differences in prices. Counter-factual simulations yield a number of results. We can explain about half of "missing trade", and show an important role for per-capita income in understanding trade/GDP ratios, the choice of trading partners, and the composition of trade. Furthermore, an equal rise in productivity in all sectors in all countries leads to a rising skill premium in all countries, with particularly large increases in developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Justin Caron & Thibault Fally & James R. Markusen, 2012. "Skill Premium and Trade Puzzles: a Solution Linking Production and Preferences," NBER Working Papers 18131, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18131
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    Cited by:

    1. Ariu, Andrea, 2016. "Crisis-proof services: Why trade in services did not suffer during the 2008–2009 collapse," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 138-149.
    2. Markusen, James R., 2012. "Per-Capita Income as a Determinant of International Trade and Environmental Policies," Discussion Papers 2013-06, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    3. James R. Markusen, 2014. "Per-Capital Income as a Determinant of International Trade and Environment Policies," CESifo Working Paper Series 4618, CESifo.
    4. Pablo D. Fajgelbaum & Amit K. Khandelwal, 2016. "Measuring the Unequal Gains from Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(3), pages 1113-1180.
    5. David Atkin & Benjamin Faber & Marco Gonzalez-Navarro, 2018. "Retail Globalization and Household Welfare: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(1), pages 1-73.
    6. Justin Caron & Thibault Fally & James Markusen, 2021. "Per capita income and the demand for skills," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: BROADENING TRADE THEORY Incorporating Market Realities into Traditional Models, chapter 12, pages 251-268, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Christian Hepenstrick & Alexander Tarasov, 2015. "Per capita income and the extensive margin of bilateral trade," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(4), pages 1561-1599, November.
    8. James R. Markusen, 2021. "Putting per-capita income back into trade theory," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: BROADENING TRADE THEORY Incorporating Market Realities into Traditional Models, chapter 10, pages 187-197, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Claudia Bernasconi, 2013. "Similarity of income distributions and the extensive and intensive margin of bilateral trade flows," ECON - Working Papers 115, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    10. Caron, Justin, 2013. "Per-capita income, consumption patterns and CO2 emissions," Conference papers 332403, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    11. Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2016. "A generalized spatial error components model for gravity equations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 177-195, February.
    12. Daniela MAGGIONI & Alessia LO TURCO & Mauro GALLEGATI, 2014. "Does export complexity matter for firms' output volatility?," Working Papers 407, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.

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    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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