From Natural Variation to Optimal Policy? The Lucas Critique Meets Peer Effects
Abstract
We take cohorts of entering freshmen at the United States Air Force Academy and assign half to peer groups with the goal of maximizing the academic performance of the lowest ability students. Our assignment algorithm uses peer effects estimates from the observational data. We find a negative and significant treatment effect for the students we intended to help. We show that within our “optimal” peer groups, students self-selected into bifurcated sub-groups with social dynamics entirely different from those in the observational data. Our results suggest that using reduced-form estimates to make out-of-sample policy predictions can lead to unanticipated outcomes.Download Info
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Bibliographic Info
Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16865.Length:
Date of creation: Mar 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16865
Note: CH ED LS PE
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Related research
Keywords:Find related papers by JEL classification:
- I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education
- J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
References
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Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- David Card & Laura Giuliano, 2011. "Peer Effects and Multiple Equilibria in the Risky Behavior of Friends," NBER Working Papers 17088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dahl, Gordon B. & Loken, Katrine Vellesen & Mogstad, Magne, 2012.
"Peer Effects in Program Participation,"
IZA Discussion Papers
6681, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Dahl, Gordon B. & Løken, Katrine V. & Mogstad, Magne, 2012. "Peer Effects In Program Participation," Working Papers in Economics 12/12, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
- Gordon B. Dahl & Katrine V. Løken & Magne Mogstad, 2012. "Peer Effects in Program Participation," NBER Working Papers 18198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Androushchak, Gregory & Poldin, Oleg & Yudkevich, Maria, 2012. "Peer effects in exogenously formed student groups," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 26(2), pages 3-16.
- Seth Richards-Shubik, 2012. "Peer Effects in Sexual Initiation: Separating Demand and Supply Mechanisms," PIER Working Paper Archive 12-015, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Mary Burke & Tim R. Sass, 2011.
"Classroom peer effects and student achievement,"
Public Policy Discussion Paper
11-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Mary A. Burke & Tim R. Sass, 2006. "Classroom Peer Effects and Student Achievement," Working Papers wp2006_02_02, Department of Economics, Florida State University.
- Mary A. Burke & Tim R. Sass, 2008. "Classroom peer effects and student achievement," Working Papers 08-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Edwin Leuven & Marte Rønning, 2012.
"Classroom grade composition and pupil achievement,"
Discussion Papers
722, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
- Leuven, Edwin & Rønning, Marte, 2011. "Classroom Grade Composition and Pupil Achievement," IZA Discussion Papers 5922, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- John Beshears & James J. Choi & David Laibson & Brigitte C. Madrian & Katherine L. Milkman, 2011. "The Effect of Providing Peer Information on Retirement Savings Decisions," NBER Working Papers 17345, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Debopam Bhattacharya & Shin Kanaya & Margaret Stevens, 2012. "Are University Admissions Academically Fair?," Economics Series Working Papers 608, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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