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Public Avoidance and the Epidemiology of novel H1N1 Influenza A

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  • Byung-Kwang Yoo
  • Megumi Kasajima
  • Jay Bhattacharya

Abstract

In June 2009, the World Health Organization declared that novel influenza A (nH1N1) had reached pandemic status worldwide. The response to the spread of this virus by the public and by the public health community was immediate and widespread. Among the responses included voluntary avoidance of public spaces, closure of schools, the ubiquitous placement of hand sanitizer, and the use of face masks in public places. Existing forecasting models of the epidemic spread of nH1N1, used by public health officials to aid in making many decisions including vaccination policy, ignore avoidance responses in the formal modeling. In this paper, we build a forecasting model of the nH1N1 epidemic that explicitly accounts for avoidance behavior. We use data from the U.S. summer and the Australian winter nH1N1 epidemic of 2009 to estimate the parameters of our model and forecast the course of the epidemic in the U.S. in 2010. We find that accounting for avoidance responses results in a better fitting forecasting model. We also find that in models with avoidance, the marginal return in terms of saved lives and reduced infection rates of an early vaccination campaign are higher.

Suggested Citation

  • Byung-Kwang Yoo & Megumi Kasajima & Jay Bhattacharya, 2010. "Public Avoidance and the Epidemiology of novel H1N1 Influenza A," NBER Working Papers 15752, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15752
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Philipson, Tomas, 2000. "Economic epidemiology and infectious diseases," Handbook of Health Economics, in: A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 33, pages 1761-1799, Elsevier.
    2. Byung Kwang Yoo & Kevin Frick, 2005. "Determinants of influenza vaccination timing," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(8), pages 777-791, August.
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    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Policy responses > Behavioral

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    Cited by:

    1. Wei Zhong, 2017. "Simulating influenza pandemic dynamics with public risk communication and individual responsive behavior," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 475-495, December.
    2. Wei Zhong & Yushim Kim & Megan Jehn, 2013. "Modeling dynamics of an influenza pandemic with heterogeneous coping behaviors: case study of a 2009 H1N1 outbreak in Arizona," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 622-645, December.
    3. Keyang Li & Yu Qin & Jing Wu & Jubo Yan, 2023. "Perceived economic prospects during the early stage of COVID‐19 breakout," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(4), pages 696-713, October.
    4. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2020. "The Coronavirus Epidemic Curve is Already Flattening in New York City," NBER Working Papers 26917, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Christopher Blackburn & Juan Moreno-Cruz, 2021. "Work Context and Industrial Composition Determine the Epidemiological Responses in a Multi-Group SIR Model," BEA Working Papers 0185, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General

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