Health Cycles and Health Transitions
AbstractWe study the dynamics of poverty and health in a model of endogenous growth and rational health behavior. Population health depends on the prevalence of infectious diseases that can be avoided through costly prevention. The incentive to do so comes from the negative effects of ill health on the quality and quantity of life. The model can generate a poverty trap where infectious diseases cycle between high and low prevalence. These cycles originate from the rationality of preventive behavior in contrast to the predator-prey dynamics of epidemiological models. We calibrate the model to reflect sub-Saharan Africa's recent economic recovery and analyze policy alternatives. Unconditional transfers are found to improve welfare relative to conditional health-based transfers: at low income levels, income growth (quality of life) is valued more than improvements to health (quantity of life).
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 50588.
Date of creation: 10 Oct 2013
Date of revision:
Infectious Disease; Cycles; Economic Epidemiology; Morbidity; Mortality; Conditional Transfers; Unconditional Transfers;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
- O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AFR-2013-10-18 (Africa)
- NEP-ALL-2013-10-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-DGE-2013-10-18 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-HEA-2013-10-18 (Health Economics)
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