Risk and Expected Returns of Private Equity Investments: Evidence Based on Market Prices
AbstractWe estimate the risk and expected returns of private equity investments based on the market prices of exchange-traded funds of funds that invest in unlisted private equity funds. Our results indicate that the market expects unlisted private equity funds to earn abnormal returns of approximately 1% per year. We also find that the market expects listed private equity funds to earn zero or marginally negative abnormal returns net of fees. Both listed and unlisted private equity funds have market betas close to one and positive factor loadings on the Fama-French SMB factor. Private equity fund returns are positively related to GDP growth and negatively related to the credit spread. In addition, we find that market returns of exchange traded funds of funds and listed private equity funds predict changes in self-reported book values of unlisted private equity funds.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15335.
Date of creation: Sep 2009
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Kräussl, Roman & Pollet, Joshua, 2010. "Risk and expected returns of private equity investments: Evidence based on market prices," CFS Working Paper Series 2010/04, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
- G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-09-19 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kaplan, Steven N. & Stein, Jeremy C., 1990. "How risky is the debt in highly leveraged transactions?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 215-245, September.
- Ludovic Phalippou & Oliver Gottschalg, 2009.
"The Performance of Private Equity Funds,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(4), pages 1747-1776, April.
- Koopman, Siem Jan & Kräussl, Roman & Lucas, André, 2006.
"Credit cycles and macro fundamentals,"
CFS Working Paper Series
2006/33, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Cochrane, John, 2000.
"The Risk and Return of Venture Capital,"
University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management
qt7qm9h594, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
- Quigley, John M. & Woodward, Susan E., 2003. "An Index for Venture Capital," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt15g2h7g9, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Martin, John D. & Petty, J. William, 1983. "An Analysis of the Performance of Publicly Traded Venture Capital Companies," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(03), pages 401-410, September.
- Gompers, Paul & Lerner, Josh, 2000. "Money chasing deals? The impact of fund inflows on private equity valuation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 281-325, February.
- Gompers, Paul & Lerner, Josh, 1999. "An analysis of compensation in the U.S. venture capital partnership," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 3-44, January.
- Steven N. Kaplan & Antoinette Schoar, 2005.
"Private Equity Performance: Returns, Persistence, and Capital Flows,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1791-1823, 08.
- Kaplan, Steve & Schoar, Antoinette, 2004. "Private Equity Performance: Returns, Persistence and Capital Flows," Working papers 4446-03, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
- Brophy, David J. & Guthner, Mark W., 1988. "Publicly traded venture capital funds: implications for institutional "fund of funds" investors," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 187-206.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1990. " Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
- Stéphanie Bilo & Hans Christophers & Michèl Degosciu & Heinz Zimmermann, 2005. "Risk, returns, and biases of listed private equity portfolios," Working papers 2005/01, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
- Alexander Ljungqvist & Matthew Richardson, 2003. "The cash flow, return and risk characteristics of private equity," NBER Working Papers 9454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marco Da Rin & Thomas F. Hellmann & Manju Puri, 2011.
"A survey of venture capital research,"
NBER Working Papers
17523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Da Rin, M. & Hellmann, T. & Puri, M.L., 2011. "A Survey of Venture Capital Research," Discussion Paper 2011-111, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Da Rin, M. & Hellmann, T. & Puri, M.L., 2011. "A Survey of Venture Capital Research," Discussion Paper 2011-044, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.