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Anticipating the Stock Market Crash of 1929: The View from the Floor of the Stock Exchange

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Eugene N. White

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Abstract

In the months prior to the stock market crash of 1929, the price of a seat on the New York Stock Exchange was abnormally low. Rising stock prices and volume should have driven up seat prices during the boom of 1929; instead there were negative cumulative abnormal returns to seats of approximately 20 percent in the months just before the crash. At the same time, trading nearly ceased in the thin markets for seats on the regional exchanges. Brokers appear thus to have anticipated the October 1929 crash, although investors in the market apparently did not recognize this information.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12661.

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Date of creation: Nov 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12661

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G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
N22 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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  1. Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Stock exchange seats as capital assets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 51-78, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Flood, Robert P & Hodrick, Robert J, 1990. "On Testing for Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 85-101, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Klug, Adam & Landon-Lane, John S. & White, Eugene N., 2005. "How could everyone have been so wrong? Forecasting the Great Depression with the railroads," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-55, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Donald B. Keim & Ananth Madhavan, 2000. "The Relation between Stock Market Movements and NYSE Seat Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2817-2840, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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