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India's Experience with Capital Flows: The Elusive Quest for a Sustainable Current Account Defecit

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Ajay Shah
Ila Patnaik

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Abstract

From the early 1990s onwards, India has engaged in policies involving trade liberalisation, strong controls on debt flows, and encouragement for portfolio flows and FDI, under a pegged exchange rate regime. Domestic institutional factors have led to relatively little FDI and substantial portfolio flows. There has been significant tension between capital flows and the currency regime. Many tactical details of the intricate reforms to the capital controls derive from the interlocking relationships between monetary policy, the currency regime and capital flows. In the recent period, pegging has given a capital outflow through reserves accumulation which was larger than the substantial net private capital inflows. In March 2004, difficulties of pegging appear to have led to a near-tripling of the nominal rupee-dollar returns volatility, which has reduced outward capital flows. The goal of the early 1990s - of finding a consistent way to augment investment using current account deficits - has remained elusive.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11387.

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Date of creation: May 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11387

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  8. repec:fth:inadeb:416 is not listed on IDEAS
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  17. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Okongwu, Chudozie, 1996. "Liberalized Portfolio Capital Inflows in Emerging Markets: Sterilization, Expectations, and the Incompleteness of Interest Rate Convergence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 1-23, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Abhijit Sen Gupta, 2007. "Does Capital Account Openness Lower Inflation?," Working Papers id:843, esocialsciences.com. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Philip R. Lane & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2006. "The international financial integration of China and India," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Buiter, Willem H & Patel, Urjit R., 2006. "India's Public Finances: Excessive Budget Deficits, a Government-Abused Financial System and Fiscal Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 5502, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Tony Cavoli, 2006. "The Extent of Exchange Rate Flexibility in India: Basket Pegger or Closet US Dollar Pegger?," Working Papers id:424, esocialsciences.com. [Downloadable!]
  5. Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2008. "Does the currency regime shape unhedged currency exposure," Working Papers 08/50, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Ila Patnaik, 2007. "The Indian Currency Regime and its Consequences," Working Papers id:1062, esocialsciences.com. [Downloadable!]
  7. Hutchison, Michael & Kendall, Jake & Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur & Singh , Nirvikar, 2009. "Indian Capital Control Liberalization: Evidence from NDF Markets," MPRA Paper 13630, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  8. Arvind Virmani, 2008. "Macro-economic Management of the Indian Economy: Capital Flows, Interest Rates and Inflation," Working Papers id:1353, esocialsciences.com. [Downloadable!]
  9. Philip Lane & Sergio Schmukler, 2007. "The Evolving Role of China and India in the Global Financial System," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 499-520, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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