IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/0369.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Energy Prices, Inflation, and Recession, 1974-1975

Author

Listed:
  • Knut Anton Mork
  • Robert E. Hall

Abstract

The energy price shock depressed real output by two percent in 1974 and by five percent in 1975, according to our results. Prices rose by four percent in 1974 and by another two percent in 1975. These conclusions are derived from an aggregate model of the U.S. economy with an explicit role of energy in production. The distinction between expected and unexpected shocks is an important part of the model. We also examine monetary and fiscal policies that might have offset the energy shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Knut Anton Mork & Robert E. Hall, 1979. "Energy Prices, Inflation, and Recession, 1974-1975," NBER Working Papers 0369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0369
    Note: EFG
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0369.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Griffin, James M & Gregory, Paul R, 1976. "An Intercountry Translog Model of Energy Substitution Responses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(5), pages 845-857, December.
    2. Hall, Robert E & Lilien, David M, 1979. "Efficient Wage Bargains under Uncertain Supply and Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(5), pages 868-879, December.
    3. Stephen M. Goldfeld, 1976. "The Case of the Missing Money," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(3), pages 683-740.
    4. Berndt, Ernst R, 1976. "Reconciling Alternative Estimates of the Elasticity of Substitution," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 58(1), pages 59-68, February.
    5. Ronald E. Findlay & Carlos Alfredo Rodriguez, 1977. "Intermediate Imports and Macroeconomic Policy under Flexible Exchange Rates," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 10(2), pages 208-217, May.
    6. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Changes in Income Taxes in the Short and Medium Runs," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(2), pages 71-85, April.
    7. Daniel J.B. Mitchell, 1978. "Union Wage Determination: Policy Implications and Outlook," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 9(3), pages 537-582.
    8. Robert J. Gordon, 1970. "The Recent Acceleration of Inflation and Its Lessons for the Future," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 1(1), pages 8-47.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hamdi, Helmi & Sbia, Rashid, 2013. "Dynamic relationships between oil revenues, government spending and economic growth in an oil-dependent economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 118-125.
    2. Parry, Ian W.H. & Darmstadter, Joel, 2003. "The Costs of U.S. Oil Dependency," Discussion Papers 10644, Resources for the Future.
    3. Aminu, Nasir & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2018. "The role of energy prices in the Great Recession — A two-sector model with unfiltered data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 14-34.
    4. Walter C. Labys & Alfred Maizels, 1990. "Commodity Price Fluctuations and Macro-economic Adjustments in the Developed Countries," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-1990-088, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Bai, Yang & Dahl, Carol, 2018. "Evaluating the management of U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve during oil disruptions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 25-38.
    6. Michael R. Darby, 1981. "The Real Price of Oil and the 1970s World Inflation," NBER Working Papers 0629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Park, Chuhwan & Chung, Mo & Lee, Sukgyu, 2011. "The effects of oil price on regional economies with different production structures: A case study from Korea using a structural VAR model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 8185-8195.
    8. Merve Karacaer-Ulusoy & Ayhan Kapusuzoglu, 2017. "The Dynamics of Financial and Macroeconomic Determinants in Natural Gas and Crude Oil Markets: Evidence from Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development/Gulf Cooperation Council/Organization," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 167-187.
    9. Michael R. Darby, 1983. "The Importance of Oil Price Changes in the 1970s World Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: The International Transmission of Inflation, pages 232-272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Venus khim-sen Liew & Arunnan Balasubramaniam, 2017. "Oil Price Shocks and Sectoral Outputs: Empirical Evidence from Malaysia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(1), pages 38-47.
    11. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Common cycles and common trends in the stock and oil markets: Evidence from more than 150years of data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 72-86.
    12. Mr. Benjamin L Hunt, 2005. "Oil Price Shocks: Can they Account for the Stagflation in the 1970's?," IMF Working Papers 2005/215, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Michael B. Devereux & Kang Shi & Juanyi Xu, 2010. "Oil Currency and the Dollar Standard: A Simple Analytical Model of an International Trade Currency," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(4), pages 521-550, June.
    14. A. G. Aganbegyan, 2022. "The Two Main Macroeconomic Theories of Keynes and Friedman and Their Use in the Economic Policy of the World’s Major Countries and Russia," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 33(5), pages 471-479, October.
    15. B., Anand & Paul, Sunil, 2021. "Oil shocks and stock market: Revisiting the dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    16. Greene, David L & Jones, Donald W & Leiby, Paul N, 1998. "The outlook for US oil dependence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 55-69, January.
    17. Binetti, Marco Nicola, 2023. "Rebuilding energy infrastructures and the manufacturing sector in post-conflict countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    18. Raúl J. Crespo & José A. Zambrano, 2018. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Oil Price Shocks in Venezuela," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 18/703, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    19. Liu, Qing & Shi, Kang & Wu, Zhouheng & Xu, Juanyi, 2014. "Oil price stabilization and global welfare," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 246-260.
    20. Romero-Ávila, Diego & Omay, Tolga, 2022. "Convergence of per capita energy consumption around the world: New evidence from nonlinear panel unit root tests," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    21. Abimelech Paye Gbatu & Zhen Wang & Presley K. Wesseh, Jr & Isaac Yak Repha Tutdel, 2017. "Asymmetric and Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Evidence from a Panel of Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 1-13.
    22. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2015. "Oil price shocks and domestic inflation in Thailand," MPRA Paper 62797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Olayungbo, D.O., 2019. "Effects of oil export revenue on economic growth in Nigeria: A time varying analysis of resource curse," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    24. Rangan Gupta & Hylton Hollander & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "The Impact of Oil Shocks in a Small Open Economy New-Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for South Africa," Working Papers 201652, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daron Acemoglu & Veronica Guerrieri, 2008. "Capital Deepening and Nonbalanced Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(3), pages 467-498, June.
    2. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1980. "Energy and Growth under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Simulation Study," NBER Working Papers 0582, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Wong, Tsz-Nga & Yip, Chong K., 2010. "Indeterminacy and the elasticity of substitution in one-sector models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 623-635, April.
    4. Jagdeep Bhandari, 1984. "A computational stochastic equilibrium model of oil-importing economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 120(2), pages 301-328, June.
    5. James Bessen, 2008. "Accounting for Productivity Growth When Technical Change is Biased," Working Papers 0802, Research on Innovation.
    6. Tavani, Daniele, 2008. "Optimal Induced Innovation and Growth with Congestion of a Limited Natural Resource," MPRA Paper 11525, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. An, Lian & Kim, Gil & Ren, Xiaomei, 2014. "Is devaluation expansionary or contractionary: Evidence based on vector autoregression with sign restrictions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 27-41.
    8. Martin, Ralf, 2009. "Why is the US so energy intensive? Evidence from US multinationals in the UK," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 28703, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Tiwari, Aviral, 2010. "On the dynamics of energy consumption and employment in public and private sector," MPRA Paper 24076, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Chengjun Lu & Duanming Zhou, 2009. "Industrial energy substitution and a revised Allen elasticity in China," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 4(1), pages 110-124, March.
    11. -, 1992. "CEPAL Review no.48," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    12. Halkos, George E. & Tzeremes, Nickolaos G., 2011. "Oil consumption and economic efficiency: A comparative analysis of advanced, developing and emerging economies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(7), pages 1354-1362, May.
    13. Miguel A León-Ledesma & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2012. "Non-Balanced Growth and Production Technology Estimation," Studies in Economics 1204, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    14. Håvard Hungnes, 2016. "Using common factors to identify substitution possibilities in a factor demand system with technological changes," Discussion Papers 849, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    15. Takeshi Niizeki, 2012. "Energy-Saving Technological Change in Japan," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd11-218, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    16. Lecca, Patrizio & Swales, Kim & Turner, Karen, 2011. "An investigation of issues relating to where energy should enter the production function," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2832-2841.
    17. Goodhart, Charles, 1989. "The Conduct of Monetary Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 293-346, June.
    18. Maya Eden & Paul Gaggl, 2018. "On the Welfare Implications of Automation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 15-43, July.
    19. Harkness, Jon P., 1980. "Opec Versus A Large Open Economy: A Stochastic Equilibrium Model," Queen's Institute for Economic Research Discussion Papers 275171, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    20. James N. Duprey, 1980. "The search for a stable money demand equation," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 4(Sum).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0369. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.