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As luck would have it : innovation and market value in "complex technology" sectors

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Author Info
Alex Coad () (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne et LEM)
Rekha Rao (LEM,Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy)

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Abstract

How do financial markets respond to firms' efforts at innovation ? To answer this question, we mesure innovation by creating a synthetic indicator based on a firm's recent history of R&D expenditure and patent applications. We focus on four 2-digit "complex technology" manufacturing sectors that have been hand-picked according to their high propensities to innovate. Whilst standard regression techniques find a positive relationship between innovation and growth, quantile regression analysis adds a new dimension to the literature. We identify those "superstar" firms with the highest stock market valuations and show that these firms owe a lot of their success to their previous efforts at innovation. However, there are also other firms whose attempts to innovate are virtually ignored by financial markets. Our results emphasize the fundamental uncertainty of R&D.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1) in its series Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques with number r06069.

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Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2006
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Handle: RePEc:mse:wpsorb:r06069

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Related research
Keywords: Innovation; market value; quantile regression; patents; Tobin's q.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
D20 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - General
D46 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - Value Theory
D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bronwyn H. Hall & Adam Jaffe & Manuel Trajtenberg, 2005. "Market Value and Patent Citations," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 36(1), pages 16-38, Spring.
  2. Hall, Bronwyn H. & Oriani, Raffaele, 2006. "Does the market value R&D investment by European firms? Evidence from a panel of manufacturing firms in France, Germany, and Italy," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 971-993, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Mahmut Yasar & Carl H. Nelson & Roderick Rejesus, 2006. "Productivity and Exporting Status of Manufacturing Firms: Evidence from Quantile Regressions," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 142(4), pages 675-694, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Griliches, Zvi, 1990. "Patent Statistics as Economic Indicators: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Griliches, Zvi, 1981. "Market value, R&D, and patents," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 183-187. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Jaffe, Adam B, 1986. "Technological Opportunity and Spillovers of R&D: Evidence from Firms' Patents, Profits, and Market Value," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 984-1001, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Mata, Jose & Machado, Jose A. F., 1996. "Firm start-up size: A conditional quantile approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1305-1323, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Bronwyn H. Hall & Adam B. Jaffe & Manuel Trajtenberg, 2001. "The NBER Patent Citation Data File: Lessons, Insights and Methodological Tools," NBER Working Papers 8498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. repec:fth:harver:1473 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Bronwyn H. Hall and Adam Jaffe, and Manuel Trajtenberg., 2001. "Market Value and Patent Citations: A First Look," Economics Working Papers E01-304, University of California at Berkeley.
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  12. Pakes, Ariel, 1985. "On Patents, R&D, and the Stock Market Rate of Return," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 390-409, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Roger Koenker & Kevin F. Hallock, 2001. "Quantile Regression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 143-156, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alex Coad, 2006. "Understanding the processes of firm Growth - a closer look at serial growth rate correlation," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques r06051, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
  2. Alex Coad, 2005. "Testing the principle of 'growth of the fitter': The relationship between profits and firm growth," Emory Economics 0531, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
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