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As luck would have it : innovation and market value in "complex technology" sectors

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Abstract

How do financial markets respond to firms' efforts at innovation ? To answer this question, we mesure innovation by creating a synthetic indicator based on a firm's recent history of R&D expenditure and patent applications. We focus on four 2-digit "complex technology" manufacturing sectors that have been hand-picked according to their high propensities to innovate. Whilst standard regression techniques find a positive relationship between innovation and growth, quantile regression analysis adds a new dimension to the literature. We identify those "superstar" firms with the highest stock market valuations and show that these firms owe a lot of their success to their previous efforts at innovation. However, there are also other firms whose attempts to innovate are virtually ignored by financial markets. Our results emphasize the fundamental uncertainty of R&D.

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File URL: ftp://mse.univ-paris1.fr/pub/mse/cahiers2006/R06069.pdf
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Paper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1) in its series Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques with number r06069.

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Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mse:wpsorb:r06069

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Keywords: Innovation; market value; quantile regression; patents; Tobin's q.;

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References

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  1. Mahmut Yasar & Carl H. Nelson & Roderick Rejesus, 2003. "Productivity and Exporting Status of Manufacturing Firms: Evidence from Quantile Regressions," Emory Economics 0323, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
  2. Zvi Griliches, 1990. "Patent Statistics as Economic Indicators: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 3301, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Bronwyn H. Hall & Adam Jaffe & Manuel Trajtenberg, 2001. "Market Value and Patent Citations: A First Look," Development and Comp Systems 0012002, EconWPA.
  4. Bronwyn H. Hall & Adam B. Jaffe & Manuel Trajtenberg, 2001. "The NBER Patent Citation Data File: Lessons, Insights and Methodological Tools," NBER Working Papers 8498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Koenker,Roger, 2005. "Quantile Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521845731, April.
  6. Bronwyn H. Hall & Adam Jaffe & Manuel Trajtenberg, 2005. "Market Value and Patent Citations," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 36(1), pages 16-38, Spring.
  7. Bronwyn H. Hall & Raffaele Oriani, 2004. "Does the Market Value R&D Investment by European Firms? Evidence from a Panel of Manufacturing Firms in France, Germany, and Italy," NBER Working Papers 10408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Jaffe, Adam B, 1986. "Technological Opportunity and Spillovers of R&D: Evidence from Firms' Patents, Profits, and Market Value," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 984-1001, December.
  9. Pakes, Ariel, 1985. "On Patents, R&D, and the Stock Market Rate of Return," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 390-409, April.
  10. Zvi Griliches, 1984. "Market Value, R&D, and Patents," NBER Chapters, in: R & D, Patents, and Productivity, pages 249-252 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Mata, Jose & Machado, Jose A. F., 1996. "Firm start-up size: A conditional quantile approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1305-1323, June.
  12. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
  13. repec:fth:harver:1473 is not listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
  1. Coad, Alex, 2007. "Testing the principle of `growth of the fitter': The relationship between profits and firm growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 370-386, September.
  2. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00118801 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Alex Coad, 2006. "Understanding the processes of firm Growth - a closer look at serial growth rate correlation," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques r06051, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).

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