Wind of Change? Experimental Survey Evidence on the COVID-19 Shock and Socio-Political Attitudes in Europe

This paper investigates whether the COVID-19 crisis has affected the way we vote and think about politics, as well as our broader attitudes and underlying value systems. We ï¬ elded large online survey experiments in Italy, Spain, Germany and the Netherlands, well into the ï¬ rst wave of the epidemic (May-June), and included outcome questions on trust, voting intentions, policies & taxation, and identity & values. With a randomised survey flow we vary whether respondents are given COVID-19 priming questions ï¬ rst, before answering the outcome questions. With this treatment design we can also disentangle the health and economic effects of the crisis, as well as a potential “rally around the flag†component. We ï¬ nd that the crisis has brought about severe drops in interpersonal and institutional trust, as well as lower support for the EU and social welfare spending ï¬ nanced by taxes. This is largely due to economic anxiety rather than health concerns. A rallying effect around (scientiï¬ c) expertise combined with populist policies losing ground forms the other side of this coin, and hints at a rising demand for competent leadership.