Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Un modèle MAcroDYNamique des économies des pays membres de l’UEMOA : MADYN

Contents:

Author Info

  • Nicolas Ponty

    ()
    (INSEE, PNUD)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    La programmation financière et monétaire tient une place centrale dans les négociations entre les autorités nationales des pays en développement et les institutions de Bretton Woods. Elle répond notamment à la nécessité d’établir une cohérence prospective entre l’évolution des principaux agrégats macroéconomiques : comptes nationaux, soldes budgétaires, situation monétaire, balance des paiements extérieurs et endettement extérieur. Sur la période récente, le suivi macroéconomique des pays en développement a connu différentes évolutions. D’abord, une surveillance multilatérale, notamment en matière budgétaire, s’est mise en place sous l’égide des organisations régionales. Ensuite, les appuis financiers extérieurs sont de plus en plus fréquemment décidés sous la forme d’une aide budgétaire et sur la base d’une conditionnalité de performance. Enfin, la programmation budgétaire sur un horizon de moyen terme s’est renforcée avec la mise en place récente de Cadre des Dépenses à Moyen Terme (CDMT). Pour répondre à ces évolutions, les outils macroéconomiques d’analyse et de prévision actuellement disponibles doivent être renforcés. Cette étude, menée dans le cadre spécifique des pays membres de l’UEMOA, propose un modèle pays MAcro structurel DYNamique, MADYN. La modélisation retenue repose bien entendu sur le cadre comptable minimal de la programmation financière et monétaire (cf. partie I). Il le complète en amont par une prise en compte systématique des variables d’environnement et de politique économique. Les différents blocs du modèle sont présentés (cf. partie II). Un panorama des principaux déterminants théoriques des comportements modélisés est alors présenté. La dernière et troisième partie précise la cohérence d’ensemble du modèle et ses conditions, en analyse variantielle et aussi en prévision. Financial and monetary programming holds a central place in negotiations between national authorities of developing countries and Breton Woods institutions. It answers in particular the need for establishing a prospective coherence between the evolution of the main macroeconomic aggregates : national accounts, fiscal balances, monetary situation, external payments and external debt. Over the recent period, the macroeconomic follow-up of developing countries has gone through various evolutions. Initially, a multilateral monitoring, notably in fiscal area, was launched under the guidance of regional organisations. Then, Official Development Assistance is more and more frequently delivered in the form of budgetary aid and on conditionality based performance. Finally, budgetary programming on a medium term horizon was reinforced with the recent launching of a Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF). To answer these evolutions, currently available macroeconomic tools for analysis and forecast must be strengthened. This study, undertaken within the specific framework of WAEMU member States, sets up a MAcro DYNamic structural model, MADYN. The modelling approach is based of course on the minimal accounting framework of the financial and monetary programming (See part I). It is characterised upstream by taking into account of environmental and economic policy variables. The various blocks of the model are presented (See part II). A survey of the overriding theoretical determinants of the behaviours is then presented. The last and third part specifies the overall consistency of the model and its conditions of use, both in counterfactual analysis and also in forecasting. (Full text in french)

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://ged.u-bordeaux4.fr/ceddt118.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV in its series Documents de travail with number 118.

    as in new window
    Length: 39 pages
    Date of creation: Oct 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:mon:ceddtr:118

    Contact details of provider:

    Related research

    Keywords:

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Jan Giehm Mikkelsen, 1998. "A Model for Financial Programming," IMF Working Papers 98/80, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Nadeem U. Haque & Kajal Lahiri & Peter J. Montiel, 1990. "A Macroeconometric Model for Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(3), pages 537-559, September.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 1990. "Dynamic Responses to Policy and Exogenous Shocks in an Empirical Developing-Country Model with Rational Expectations," IMF Working Papers 90/25, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Beckerman, Paul, 2000. "How small should an economy's fiscal deficit be? - a monetary programming approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2308, The World Bank.
    5. Jean-Claude Nachega, 2001. "A Cointegration Analysis of Broad Money Demand in Cameroon," IMF Working Papers 01/26, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Easterly, William, 1997. "The ghost of financing gap : how the Harrod-Domar growth model still haunts development economics," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1807, The World Bank.
    7. J. J. Polak, 2001. "The Two Monetary Approaches to the Balance of Payments," IMF Working Papers 01/100, International Monetary Fund.
    8. C. John McDermott & Eswar Prasad & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1999. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 99/35, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 251-85, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mon:ceddtr:118. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.