Stability and Growth Pact: An Index to Trigger an Early Warning Earlier?
AbstractThis paper addresses the question of a technical change in one the components of the Stability and Grown Pact (SGP). Indeed, the SGP is composed of (1) a political commitment, (2) a preventive element, and (3) a dissuasive element, and an improvement of the SGP efficacy can come from any of these three components. In this paper the author proposes a new early warning procedure, part of the preventive element. The ideal situation would be for the European Commission to be able to identify countries at risk as soon as they vote their national budgets. Although this is not possible, as the measures of the deficit are based on GDP forecasts, the conclusion this paper makes is that the EC should avoid relying on GDP forecasts by calculating a reference index.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Middlebury College, Department of Economics in its series Middlebury College Working Paper Series with number 0502.
Length: 14 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2005
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europe; fiscal rule; stability and growth pact; political economics;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
- F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order; Noneconomic International Organizations;; Economic Integration and Globalization: General
- F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-02-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2005-02-13 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-POL-2005-02-13 (Positive Political Economics)
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