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Bluffing: an equilibrium strategy

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  • Fabrice Rousseau;

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    (Economics, National University of Ireland, Maynooth)

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    Abstract

    The present work studies the behavior of a monopolistic informed trader in a two-period competitive dealer market. We show that the informed trader may engage in stock price manipulation as a result of the exploitation of his informational advantage (sufficient conditions are provided). The informed trader achieves this manipulation by not trading in the first period according to the information received. This trader attempts to jam his signal or to bluff. In equilibrium this behavior is anticipated by the market maker, but still the informed continues to bluff with a positive probability. Equilibria with bluffing behavior are mixed strategies equilibria where the informed both follows and jams his information with positive probabilities. We also show that under those sufficient conditions, a pure strategy equilibrium where the informed does not bluff does not exist.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth in its series Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series with number n981099.

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    Length: 35 pages
    Date of creation: Nov 1999
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:may:mayecw:n981099

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    Postal: Maynooth, Co. Kildare
    Phone: 353-1-7083728
    Fax: 353-1-7083934
    Web page: http://economics.nuim.ie
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    Related research

    Keywords: Trade-Based Manipulation; Bluffing; Dealer Market.;

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    1. Bhattacharya, Utpal & Spiegel, Matthew, 1991. "Insiders, Outsiders, and Market Breakdowns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 255-82.
    2. Allen, Franklin & Gorton, Gary, 1992. "Stock price manipulation, market microstructure and asymmetric information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 624-630, April.
    3. Jarrow, Robert A., 1992. "Market Manipulation, Bubbles, Corners, and Short Squeezes," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(03), pages 311-336, September.
    4. Drew Fudenberg & Jean Tirole, 1991. "Game Theory," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061414, December.
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