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Simulation and Estimation of Loss Given Default

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Author Info

  • Stefan Hlawatsch

    () (Faculty of Economics and Management, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg)

  • Sebastian Ostrowski

    () (Faculty of Economics and Management, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg)

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    Abstract

    The aim of our paper is the development of an adequate estimation model for the loss given default, which incorporates the empirically observed bimodality and bounded nature of the distribution. Therefore we introduce an adjusted Expectation Maximization algorithm to estimate the parameters of a univariate mixture distribution, consisting of two beta distributions. Subsequently these estimations are compared with the Maximum Likelihood estimators to test the efficiency and accuracy of both algorithms. Furthermore we analyze our derived estimation model with estimation models proposed in the literature on a synthesized loan portfolio. The simulated loan portfolio consists of possibly loss-influencing parameters that are merged with loss given default observations via a quasi-random approach. Our results show that our proposed model exhibits more accurate loss given default estimators than the benchmark models for different simulated data sets comprising obligor-specific parameters with either high predictive power or low predictive power for the loss given default.

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    File URL: http://www.ww.uni-magdeburg.de/fwwdeka/femm/a2010_Dateien/2010_10.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2010
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management in its series FEMM Working Papers with number 100010.

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    Length: 37 pages
    Date of creation: Mar 2010
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:mag:wpaper:100010

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    Related research

    Keywords: Bimodality; EM Algorithm; Loss Given Default; Maximum Likelihood; Mixture Distribution; Portfolio Simulation;

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    References

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    1. Esa Jokivuolle & Samu Peura, 2003. "Incorporating Collateral Value Uncertainty in Loss Given Default Estimates and Loan-to-value Ratios," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 9(3), pages 299-314.
    2. Bastos, João A., 2010. "Forecasting bank loans loss-given-default," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2510-2517, October.
    3. Jobst, Norbert J. & Zenios, Stavros A., 2005. "On the simulation of portfolios of interest rate and credit risk sensitive securities," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 298-324, March.
    4. Dermine, J. & de Carvalho, C. Neto, 2006. "Bank loan losses-given-default: A case study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1219-1243, April.
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