IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mad/wpaper/2020-190.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Impact of Trade with ASEAN on India’s Employment in Industrial Sector

Author

Listed:
  • Devasmita Jena

    ((Corresponding author) Lecturer, Madras School of Economics, Chennai, India)

  • Swati Saini

    (Assistant Professor, Dyal Singh College, University of Delhi)

Abstract

In recent time, India’s growing trade deficits with its partner countries have been a major policy concern, making Indian policymakers cautious about signing new free trade deals. In this paper, we argue that in addition to the impact of trade agreements on India’s trade balance, policy discussions on trade agreements should also take into account the impact of trade on a spectrum of other economic indicators, such as economic growth, income distribution and employment. In particular, the impact on employment is central to assess whether or not greater trade integration is helping or harming the country, since employment numbers capture both growth and distributional aspect of trade. This paper sheds light on this aspect by examining the impact of Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN)- India Free Trade Agreement (AIFTA) on industry-level employment in India during the period of 1996-97 to 2016-17. We use a dynamic econometric model in a panel framework and find that while export and import have had favorable impact on industrial sector employment prior to 2004-05, AIFTA led to decline in industrial sector employment post 2004-05.

Suggested Citation

  • Devasmita Jena & Swati Saini, 2020. "Impact of Trade with ASEAN on India’s Employment in Industrial Sector," Working Papers 2020-190, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    • Handle: RePEc:mad:wpaper:2020-190
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mse.ac.in/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Working-Paper-190.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    2. Samargandi, Nahla & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015. "Is the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 66-81.
    3. Rajesh Raj S.N. & Subash Sasidharan, 2015. "Impact of Foreign Trade on Employment and Wages in Indian Manufacturing," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 16(2), pages 209-232, September.
    4. Chandrima Sikdar & Biswajit Nag, 2011. "Impact of India-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement: A cross-country analysis using applies general equilibrium modelling," Working Papers 10711, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada..
    5. Satish Chand & Kunal Sen, 2002. "Trade Liberalization and Productivity Growth: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 120-132, February.
    6. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    7. Kunal Sen, 2009. "International Trade and Manufacturing Employment: Is India following the Footsteps of Asia or Africa?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 765-777, November.
    8. Rhys Jenkins & Kunal Sen, 2006. "International Trade and Manufacturing Employment in the South: Four Country Case Studies," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 299-322.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Saba GULNAZ & Hemlata MANGLANI, 2022. "Does gravity work in the context of India and ASEAN bilateral trade? An application of the FGLS method," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(630), S), pages 143-160, Spring.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hlalefang Khobai & Clement Moyo, 2021. "Trade openness and industry performance in SADC countries: is the manufacturing sector different?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 105-126, February.
    2. Rajesh Raj S.N. & Subash Sasidharan, 2015. "Impact of Foreign Trade on Employment and Wages in Indian Manufacturing," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 16(2), pages 209-232, September.
    3. Peppel-Srebrny, Jemima, 2021. "Not all government budget deficits are created equal: Evidence from advanced economies' sovereign bond markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    4. Huy Quang Doan, 2019. "Trade, Institutional Quality and Income: Empirical Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-23, May.
    5. Mariarosaria Comunale & Markus Eller & Mathias Lahnsteiner, 2020. "Assessing credit gaps in CESEE based on levels justified by fundamentals – a comparison across different estimation approaches," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 74, Bank of Lithuania.
    6. Engelbert Stockhammer & Rafael Wildauer, 2016. "Debt-driven growth? Wealth, distribution and demand in OECD countries," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(6), pages 1609-1634.
    7. Wahidin, Deni & Akimov, Alexandr & Roca, Eduardo, 2021. "The impact of bond market development on economic growth before and after the global financial crisis: Evidence from developed and developing countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    8. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotłowski & Kamil Wierus, 2015. "Can interest rate spreads stabilize the euro area?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3696-3709, July.
    9. Anke Hoeffler & Mr. Robert H. Bates & Ms. Ghada Fayad, 2012. "Income and Democracy: Lipset's Law Revisited," IMF Working Papers 2012/295, International Monetary Fund.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5srl83htc08lnqmtptsrb72rt9 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Jean-Thomas Bernard & Ba Chu & Lynda Khalaf & Marcel Voia, 2019. "Non-Standard Confidence Sets for Ratios and Tipping Points with Applications to Dynamic Panel Data," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 134, pages 79-108.
    12. Federico M. Giesenow & Jakob de Haan, 2019. "The influence of government ideology on monetary policy: New cross‐country evidence based on dynamic heterogeneous panels," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 216-239, July.
    13. Gautam, Tej K. & Paudel, Krishna P., 2018. "The demand for natural gas in the Northeastern United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 890-898.
    14. Gregory Casey & Stephie Fried & Ethan Goode, 2023. "Projecting the Impact of Rising Temperatures: The Role of Macroeconomic Dynamics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(3), pages 688-718, September.
    15. Luca NUNZIATA & Stefano STAFFOLANI, 2001. "On Short-term Contracts Regulations," Working Papers 150, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    16. Domonkos, Tomas & Fisera, Boris & Siranova, Maria, 2023. "Income inequality as long-term conditioning factor of monetary transmission to bank rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    17. Kapetanios, George & Price, Simon & Tasiou, Menelaos & Ventouri, Alexia, 2021. "State-level wage Phillips curves," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 1-11.
    18. Matthew Higgins & Egon Zakrajšek, 1999. "Purchasing power parity: three stakes through the heart of the unit root null," Staff Reports 80, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    19. Tsai, Tsung-Han, 2016. "A Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Panel Models with Endogenous Rarely Changing Variables," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(3), pages 595-620, September.
    20. Scott, K. Rebecca, 2015. "Demand and price uncertainty: Rational habits in international gasoline demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 40-49.
    21. Kahn, Matthew E. & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Ng, Ryan N.C. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Raissi, Mehdi & Yang, Jui-Chung, 2021. "Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: A cross-country analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade; Employment; India-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement; KLEMS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mad:wpaper:2020-190. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Geetha G (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mseacin.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.