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Weather Shocks, Agricultural Productivity and Farmer Suicides in India

Author

Listed:
  • Sonal Barve

    (Research Intern, Reserve Bank of India)

  • K.S. Kavi Kumar

    (Professor, Madras School of Economics, Chennai, India)

  • Brinda Viswanathan

    (Professor, Madras School of Economics)

Abstract

There are several reasons for farmer depression leading sometimes to the extreme measure of committing suicide. Globalization, commercialization, modernisation, erratic climatic conditions, individual expectations, contagion and government policies are some of the reasons attributed to farmer’s suicides. This study examines linkages between weather shock induced changes in agricultural productivity and farmer’s suicides in India using fixed effects panel data model with 25 Indian states and 14 years (1996-2009). Estimates from single equation model show no direct effect of weather shocks on farmer suicides while a two-equation specification – one for count of farmer suicides with endogenous agricultural variable and an agricultural equation with weather shocks – yields useful insights. The results from first stage estimation as expected suggest that (low) rainfall shock and high temperature shock adversely affect crop yield per hectare, while regions with higher share of irrigated area are able to counter to some extent the adverse effects of weather shocks. The negative binomial regression model for farmer suicide includes predicted yield along with one-period lag of farmer suicides and state’s suicide rates to capture the contagion effect. The results show that contagion effects are strong on farmer’s suicides while predicted crop yield has negative and significant influence indicating that farmer suicides are indirectly associated with weather shocks via the changes in agricultural productivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Sonal Barve & K.S. Kavi Kumar & Brinda Viswanathan, 2019. "Weather Shocks, Agricultural Productivity and Farmer Suicides in India," Working Papers 2019-185, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    • Handle: RePEc:mad:wpaper:2019-185
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brinda Viswanathan & K.S. Kavi Kumar, "undated". "Weather Variability, Agriculture and Rural Migration: Evidence from State and District Level Migration in India," Working papers 83, The South Asian Network for Development and Environmental Economics.
    2. Yashobanta Parida & Devi Prasad Dash & Parul Bhardwaj & Joyita Roy Chowdhury, 2018. "Effects of Drought and Flood on Farmer Suicides in Indian States: An Empirical Analysis," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 159-180, July.
    3. Anoop Sadanandan, 2014. "Political economy of suicide: financial reforms, credit crunches and farmer suicides in India," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 48(4), pages 287-307, October-D.
    4. Nagaraj, K. & Sainath, P. & Rukmani, R. & Gopinath, R., 2014. "Farmers’ Suicides in India: Magnitudes, Trends, and Spatial Patterns, 1997-2012," Review of Agrarian Studies, Foundation for Agrarian Studies, vol. 4(2), December.
    5. Guillaume Gruere & Debdatta Sengupta, 2011. "Bt Cotton and Farmer Suicides in India: An Evidence-based Assessment," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(2), pages 316-337.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Farmer Suicide; Weather Shocks; Agricultural Productivity; Contagion Effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • D19 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Other
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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