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Décomposition des effets des politiques économiques sur l'évolution de la pauvreté au Cameroun: une analyse en équilibre général micro-simulé avec double calibration

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Author Info

  • Christian Arnault Émini
  • Dorine Kanmi Feunou

Abstract

Ce papier décompose la contribution des politiques économiques majeures menées au Cameroun, dans la réduction de la pauvreté entre 1993 et 2001. Pour cela, un modèle de microsimulation en équilibre général calculable, avec double calibration a été utilisé. Il en résulte que les changements technologiques survenus entre 1993 et 2001 expliquent à eux seuls 31% de la réduction de la proportion de pauvres (FGT0) au niveau national, et 45% de la croissance du PIB, avec une tendance à tirer le niveau des prix à la consommation vers le bas. Les changements technologiques renvoient ici aux variations des valeurs des paramètres d'échelle connus dans les fonctions de production et de différenciation des produits par origine ou par destination. Les contributions de la dévaluation de 1994 du Franc CFA, de la réhabilitation des infrastructures, et de la réforme fiscale de 1994, représentent respectivement 1%, 11% et 3% dans la croissance du PIB; et 65%, 0% et 11% dans la hausse des prix à la consommation; 2%, 9% et -4% dans la réduction de l'indice FGT0.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by PEP-MPIA in its series Working Papers MPIA with number 2008-18.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:lvl:mpiacr:2008-18

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Keywords: Double calibration; décomposition d'impacts; microsimulation; dévaluation; modèles EGC; changements technologiques; réformes fiscales et douanières; infrastructures de base;

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References

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  1. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-66, May.
  2. Cogneau, Denis & Robilliard, Anne-Sophie, 2000. "Growth, distribution and poverty in Madagascar," TMD discussion papers 61, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  3. John Cockburn, 2002. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in Nepal A Computable General Equilibrium Micro Simulation Analysis," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2002-11, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  4. Lisandro Abrego & John Whalley, 1999. "The Choice of Structural Model in Trade-Wages Decompositions," CSGR Working papers series 34/99, Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation (CSGR), University of Warwick.
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Cited by:
  1. Alia, Didier & Ndjana, Willy & Nghogue, Erith, 2009. "Construction d'un MEGC pour l'évaluation de l'impact de la politique économique au Cameroun sur le secteur informel et la pauvreté
    [Evaluation of the effects of economic policies on informal sec
    ," MPRA Paper 30339, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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