Export market exit and firm survival: theory and first evidence
AbstractThis paper deploys a dynamic extension of the Melitz (2003) model to generate predictions on export market exit and firm survival in a setting where firms endogenously make exit decisions. The central driver of the model dynamics is the inclusion of exogenous economy wide technological progress. The model predicts – inter alia – that a higher relative productivity not only increases the likelihood of exporting, but also the chances of firm survival and continued export market engagements. We relate these predictions to the empirical stylized facts of export market exit and firm survival based on Danish firm-level data. We find strong evidence that firms experience a decline in market share prior to export market exit and prior to death and that the firms discontinuing their exporting activity or closing down tend to be small. Overall, our empirical results support the central predictions from the model.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics in its series Working Paper Series in Economics with number 262.
Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2013
Date of revision:
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Intra-industry trade; entry/exit; heterogeneous firms; technological change;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
- O33 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change; Research and Development; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
- L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
- L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-02-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-BEC-2013-02-03 (Business Economics)
- NEP-CSE-2013-02-03 (Economics of Strategic Management)
- NEP-INT-2013-02-03 (International Trade)
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