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Isolating the incapacitative effect of social distancing on crime: Evidence from Ecuador’s Covid-19 lockdown

Author

Listed:
  • Clotilde Mahe

    (Department of Economics and Management, Université du Luxembourg)

  • Sergio Parra-Cely

    (Universidad San Francisco de Quito, Ecuador)

Abstract

Identifying the impact of incapacitation measures on crime, such as imprisonment or curfews, is challenging since any such intervention simultaneously dissuades from engaging in illegal behaviour. We exploit Covid-19 confinement measures as a quasi-experiment to isolate incapacitative from deterrent effects of mobility restrictions in a developing country, Ecuador. Difference-in-differences and eventstudy estimates show a significant reduction in violent and property crime, relative to comparable months in pandemic-free years. While the fall in violent crime is driven by rape cases, we observe no cross-crime substitution for property crime. Heterogeneity effect analysis indicates that the composite decline in violent crime is entirely attributed to incapacitation. In contrast, the drop in property crime is attenuated in provinces where the economic activity mainly relies on essential sectors and blue-collar occupations, leaving incapacitation to explain 40 to 50% of the composite decrease.

Suggested Citation

  • Clotilde Mahe & Sergio Parra-Cely, 2020. "Isolating the incapacitative effect of social distancing on crime: Evidence from Ecuador’s Covid-19 lockdown," DEM Discussion Paper Series 20-23, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    • Handle: RePEc:luc:wpaper:20-23
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crime; Incapacitation; Deterrence Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions; Covid-19 Ecuador; Latin America.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I19 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Other
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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