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The United States and Her Creditors: Can the Symbiosis Last?

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  • Wynne Godley
  • Dimitri B. Papadimitriou
  • Claudio H. Dos Santos
  • Gennaro Zezza

Abstract

The main arguments in this paper can be simply stated: 1) If output in the US grows fast enough to keep unemployment constant between now and 2010 and if there is no further depreciation in the dollar, the deficit in the balance of trade is likely to get worse, perhaps reaching 7.5 per cent by the end of the decade. 2) If the trade deficit does not improve, let alone if it gets worse, there will be a large further deterioration in the US's net foreign asset position so that, with interest rates rising, net income payments from abroad will at last turn negative and the deficit in the current account as a whole could reach at least 8.5 per cent of GDP. . . .

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Levy Economics Institute in its series Economics Strategic Analysis Archive with number sa_sep_05.

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Date of creation: Sep 2005
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Handle: RePEc:lev:levysa:sa_sep_05

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  1. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Anwar M. Shaikh & Claudio H. Dos Santos & Gennaro Zezza, 2005. "How Fragile is the U.S. Economy?," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_mar_05, Levy Economics Institute.
  2. Kenneth Rogoff & William Brainard & George Perry, . "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Working Paper 33687, Harvard University OpenScholar.
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Cited by:
  1. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Edward Chilcote & Gennaro Zezza, 2006. "Are Housing Prices, Household Debt, and Growth Sustainable?," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_jan_06, Levy Economics Institute.
  2. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Edward Chilcote & Gennaro Zezza, 2006. "Can the Growth in the U.S. Current Account Deficit Be Sustained?: The Growing Burden of Servicing Foreign-Owned U.S. Debt," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_may_06, Levy Economics Institute.
  3. L. Randall Wray, 2006. "Extending Minsky's Classifications of Fragility to Government and the Open Economy," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_450, Levy Economics Institute.
  4. von Arnim, Rudiger, 2009. "Recession and rebalancing: How the housing and credit crises will impact US real activity," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 309-324, May.

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