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Nonlinear Impacts of International Business Cycles on the UK — a Bayesian Smooth Transition VAR

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  • Deborah Gefang

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  • Rodney Strachan

Abstract

Employing a Bayesian approach, we investigate the impact of international business cycles on the UK economy in the context of a smooth transition VAR. We find that British business cycle is asymmetrically influenced by the US, France and Germany. Overall, positive and negative shocks generating in the US or France affect the UK in the same directions of the shock. Yet, a shock emanating from Germany always exerts negative accumulative effects on the UK. More strikingly, a positive shock arising from Germany negatively affects UK output growth more than a negative shock from Germany of the same size. These results suggest that the appropriate UK economic policy depends upon the origin, size and direction of the external shocks.

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File URL: http://www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/RePEc/lec/leecon/dp08-4.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Leicester in its series Discussion Papers in Economics with number 08/4.

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Date of creation: Jan 2008
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Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:08/4

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Related research

Keywords: International business cycle; Bayesian; smooth transition vector autoregression model;

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