Can Turkish Recessions Be Predicted?
AbstractThere is much scepticism about the ability to predict recessions. Harding and Pagan (2010b)have argued that this is because the definition of a recession involves the signs of future growth rates of economic activity and there is little predictability of these from the past. Turkey represents an interesting case study since growth in Turkish GDP features quite high serial correlation, suggesting that growth itself is predictable. Thus I want to examine whether it is possible to predict recessions in Turkey. As there seems only a small published literature on this it will be necessary to indicate what definition of recession is to be used and what information might be available to make a prediction of such an event. We found that using information from past macroeconomic variables would result in only limited success in predicting Turkish recessions.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum in its series Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers with number 1027.
Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2010
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- NEP-ALL-2010-10-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-ARA-2010-10-23 (MENA - Middle East & North Africa)
- NEP-CWA-2010-10-23 (Central & Western Asia)
- NEP-FOR-2010-10-23 (Forecasting)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dungey, Mardi & Pagan, Adrian, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-42, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sumru Oz).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.