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Capacity Choice under Uncertainty: The Impact of Market Structure

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  • Veronika Grimm
  • Gregor Zoettl

Abstract

We analyze a market game where firms choose capacities under uncertainty about future market conditions and make output choices after uncertainty has unraveled. We show existence and uniqueness of equilibrium under imperfect competition and provide an intuitive characterization of equilibrium investment. We show that investment in oligopoly, in the first and second best solution can be unambiguously ranked, in particular investment incentives are highest in the First Best solution and lowest under imperfect competition. We finally demonstrate that intervention of a social planer only at the production stage leads to strategic uncertainty at the investment stage and moreover decreases total investment below the level obtained under imperfect competition.

Suggested Citation

  • Veronika Grimm & Gregor Zoettl, 2006. "Capacity Choice under Uncertainty: The Impact of Market Structure," Working Paper Series in Economics 23, University of Cologne, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:kls:series:0023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Castro-Rodriguez, Fidel & Marín, Pedro L. & Siotis, Georges, 2009. "Capacity choices in liberalised electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2574-2581, July.
    2. Veronika Grimm & Gregor Zoettl, 2006. "Access to Commitment Devices Reduces Investment Incentives in Oligopoly," Working Paper Series in Economics 25, University of Cologne, Department of Economics.
    3. Gregor, ZOETTL, 2008. "Investment decisions in liberalized electricity markets : A framework of peak load pricing with strategic firms," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2008029, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    4. de Frutos, María-Ángeles & Fabra, Natalia, 2011. "Endogenous capacities and price competition: The role of demand uncertainty," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 399-411, July.
    5. Flacher, David & Jennequin, Hugues & Lorenzi, Jean-Hervé, 2006. "Innovation, Investment and Regulation: What are the Options for Regulation in the Near Future?," MPRA Paper 3573, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. repec:dau:papers:123456789/119 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Gabszewicz, Jean & Tarola, Ornella & Zanaj, Skerdilajda, 2010. "On uncertainty when it affects successive markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 133-136, February.
    8. Gürkan, G. & Ozdemir, O. & Smeers, Y., 2013. "Strategic Generation Capacity Choice under Demand Uncertainty : Analysis of Nash Equilibria in Electricity Markets," Other publications TiSEM 6b9f0c3a-030e-41e7-8e04-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Gürkan, G. & Ozdemir, O. & Smeers, Y., 2013. "Strategic Generation Capacity Choice under Demand Uncertainty : Analysis of Nash Equilibria in Electricity Markets," Discussion Paper 2013-044, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    10. Schröder, Andreas, 2012. "An Electricity Market Model with Generation Capacity Investment under Uncertainty," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62068, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Young David, 2010. "Endogenous Investment and Pricing under Uncertainty," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-29, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investment incentives; demand uncertainty; cost uncertainty; Cournot competition; First Best; Second Best; capacity obligations; spot market regulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • D41 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Perfect Competition
    • D42 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Monopoly
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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