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Causality Relationships between Total Exports with Agricultural and Manufacturing GDP in Tanzania

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  • Shombe, Nicolaus Herman
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    Abstract

    This paper, investigates causal relationships among agriculture, manufacturing and export in Tanzania by using time series data for the period between 1970 and 2005. The empirical results show in both sectors there is Granger causality where agriculture causes both exports and manufacturing. Exports also cause both agricultural GDP and manufacturing GDP and any two variables out of three jointly cause the third one. There is also some evidence that manufacturing does not cause export and agriculture. Regarding cointegration, pairwise agricultural GDP and export are cointegrated, export and manufacture are cointegrated. Agriculture and manufacture are cointegrated but they are lag sensitive. However, three variables, manufacturing, export and agriculture both together are cointegrated showing that they share long run relation and this has important economic implications.

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    File URL: http://ir.ide.go.jp/dspace/bitstream/2344/726/3/ARRIDE_Discussion_No.136_shombe.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2008
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO) in its series IDE Discussion Papers with number 136.

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    Date of creation: Feb 2008
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    Publication status: Published in IDE Discussion Paper. No. 136. 2008.2
    Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper136

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    Related research

    Keywords: Causality; Agricultural and manufacturing GDP; Export; Tanzania; Gross domestic product; Agriculture; Manufacturing industries;

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    1. Estudillo, Jonna P & Otsuka, Keijiro, 1999. "Green Revolution, Human Capital, and Off-Farm Employment: Changing," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(3), pages 497-523, April.
    2. Jean–paul Azam & Augustin Fosu & Njuguna Ndung’u, 2002. "Explaining Slow Growth in Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 14(2), pages 177-220.
    3. Keijiro Otsuka, 2006. "Cluster-Based Industrial Development: A View From East Asia," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 57(3), pages 361-376.
    4. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
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