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Fundamental value trajectories and trader characteristics in an asset market experiment

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  • Adriana Breaban

    ()
    (Department of Economics and LEE, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)

  • Charles N. Noussair

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Tilburg University, Tilburg, The Netherlands)

Abstract

We report results from an asset market experiment, in which we investigate how the time path of the fundamental value trajectory affects the level of adherence to fundamentals. In contrast to previous experiments with long-lived assets, there is a phase in which fundamental values are constant before the onset of a trend. The trend is either increasing or decreasing, depending on the treatment. We compare the level of mispricing between the decreasing and increasing fundamental value trajectories. Before the market begins, risk aversion, loss aversion, and cognitive reflection protocols are administered to traders. We find evidence for closer adherence to fundamental values when the trajectory follows a decreasing, than when it has an increasing, trend. Greater average risk aversion on the part of traders in the market predicts lower market prices. The greater the level of loss aversion of the trader cohort, the lower the quantity traded. The greater the average cognitive reflection test score, the smaller the differences between market prices and fundamental values. The variation between groups in risk aversion, loss aversion, and CRT score, explains 45% and 18% of the cohort-level variation in price level and mispricing, respectively.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain) in its series Working Papers with number 2014/08.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:jau:wpaper:2014/08

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Keywords: Bubble; Fundamental Value; CRT; Crash;

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References

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  1. Lei, V. & Noussair, C. & Plott, C.R., 1998. "Non-Speculative Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Lack of Common Knowledge of Rationality Vs. Actual Irrationality," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1120, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
  2. Ernst Fehr & Lorenz Goette, 2007. "The Robustness and Real Consequences of Nominal Wage Rigidity," Kiel Working Papers 1343, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Vivian Lei & Filip Vesely, 2009. "Market Efficiency: Evidence From A No-Bubble Asset Market Experiment," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 246-258, 05.
  4. Vernon L. Smith, 1962. "An Experimental Study of Competitive Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70, pages 111.
  5. Shane Frederick, 2005. "Cognitive Reflection and Decision Making," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 25-42, Fall.
  6. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. " Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-95, June.
  7. Haruvy, E. & Noussair, C.N. & Powell, O.R., 2012. "The Impact of Asset Repurchases and Issues in an Experimental Market," Discussion Paper 2012-092, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  8. Charles Noussair & Steven Tucker, 2006. "Futures Markets And Bubble Formation In Experimental Asset Markets ," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 167-184, 06.
  9. Brice Corgnet & Roberto Hernán González & Praveen Kujal & David Porter, 2013. "The Effect of Earned vs. House Money on Price Bubble Formation in Experimental Asset Markets," Working Papers 13-04, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  10. Giusti, Giovanni & Jiang, Janet Hua & Xu, Yiping, 2012. "Eliminating Laboratory Asset Bubbles by Paying Interest on Cash," MPRA Paper 37321, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Volodymyr Lugovskyy & Daniela Puzzello & Steven Tucker, 2009. "An Experimental Study of Bubble Formation in Asset Markets Using the Tâtonnement Pricing Mechanism," Working Papers in Economics 09/19, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  12. Michael Kirchler & Jurgen Huber & Thomas Stockl, 2012. "Thar She Bursts: Reducing Confusion Reduces Bubbles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 865-83, April.
  13. Ernan Haruvy & Charles N. Noussair, 2006. "The Effect of Short Selling on Bubbles and Crashes in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1119-1157, 06.
  14. Martin Dufwenberg & Tobias Lindqvist & Evan Moore, 2005. "Bubbles and Experience: An Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1731-1737, December.
  15. Urs Fischbacher, 2007. "z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 171-178, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Stefan Palan, 2014. "A Software for Asset Market Experiments," Working Paper Series, Social and Economic Sciences 2014-01, Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Karl-Franzens-University Graz.
  2. Charles Noussair & Steven Tucker, 2014. "Cash Inflows and Bubbles in Asset Markets with Constant Fundamental Values," Working Papers in Economics 14/03, University of Waikato, Department of Economics.
  3. Giovanni Giusti & Janet Hua Jiang & Yiping Xu, 2014. "Interest on Cash, Fundamental Value Process and Bubble Formation on Experimental Asset Markets," Working Papers 14-18, Bank of Canada.

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